Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Fishing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fishing Simulation game?

Simulation + Fishing

Of 202 developers who shipped a Fishing Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 369 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.1k, ×6.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×1212 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 369 games are announced against 118 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 369 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Fishing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 202
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.6k → $27k → $31k → $5.4k → $5.1k → $8.8k → $2.1k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Fishing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 202
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $4.1k (exactly $4,075)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $52,245)
Top 5% $761k (exactly $760,834)
Developers, 2 yr 202
Released games 420
Announced 369
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Fishing
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Fishing; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Farming Sim, Life Sim, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cute, Cozy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 53,537 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.1k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 101 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 369 games are announced against 118 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition older $29.99 47,176 94% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,444,247) Thunder Lotus
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Feed and Grow: Fish · EA older $14.99 20,750 78% 623k $9.3M (exactly $9,331,275) Old B1ood
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
Cast n Chill $14.99 8,383 94% 251k $3.8M (exactly $3,769,835) Wombat Brawler
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
Go-Go Town! $27.99 2,476 93% 74k $2.1M (exactly $2,079,097) Prideful Sloth
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Grimshire · EA $14.99 3,243 97% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,458,377) Acute Owl Studio
Ultimate Fishing® Simulator 2 $19.99 2,077 66% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,245,577) Silent Bear Studio, SHINING GAMES
Farmer's Dynasty 2 · EA $24.99 1,225 72% 37k $918k (exactly $918,382) UMEO Studios
Farlands $17.99 1,628 89% 49k $879k (exactly $878,632) JanduSoft, Eric Rodríguez

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.