Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Dungeon Crawler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dungeon Crawler Simulation game?

Simulation + Dungeon Crawler

Of 147 developers who shipped a Dungeon Crawler Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 232 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $820k, ×1315 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 232 games are announced against 88 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 232 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Dungeon Crawler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 147
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.8k → $7.6k → $13k → $21k → $898 → $4.5k → $3.4k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Dungeon Crawler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 147
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,157)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $44,488)
Top 5% $826k (exactly $825,714)
Developers, 2 yr 147
Released games 376
Announced 232
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dungeon Crawler
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Dungeon Crawler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 22,873 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $820k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 7 in 10 of the 70 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 232 games are announced against 88 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Moonlighter older $19.99 17,286 82% 519k $10M (exactly $10,366,414) Digital Sun
War for the Overworld older $29.99 6,495 85% 195k $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) Brightrock Games
Exanima · EA older $14.99 12,684 80% 381k $5.7M (exactly $5,703,995) Bare Mettle Entertainment
Recettear: An Item Shop's Tale older $19.99 6,684 95% 201k $4.0M (exactly $4,008,395) EasyGameStation
Legendary Tales older $39.99 2,711 76% 81k $3.3M (exactly $3,252,387) Urban Wolf Games Inc.
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Moncage older $14.99 5,127 92% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,305,612) Optillusion
Dragon Cliff older $9.99 7,679 88% 230k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,396) Meta Interaction
Dead Age older $14.99 4,407 83% 132k $2.0M (exactly $1,981,828) Silent Dreams
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
How Many Dudes? $14.99 2,948 89% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,716) Butterscotch Shenanigans
JIANGHU CHRONICLES $17.99 2,046 70% 61k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,226) 一品阁
Subliminal $9.99 3,535 74% 106k $1.1M (exactly $1,059,440) Accidental Studios
Goblin Cleanup · EA $19.99 1,615 87% 48k $969k (exactly $968,515) Crisalu Games
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
Return from Core $16.99 1,620 75% 49k $826k (exactly $825,714) 顽核社 FuncoreClub
Horripilant $7.99 2,928 92% 88k $702k (exactly $701,842) Alexandre Declos , Pas Game Studio
Dungeon Tycoon $14.99 1,472 78% 44k $662k (exactly $661,958) Lunheim Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.