Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Desktop Companion

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Desktop Companion Simulation game?

Simulation + Desktop Companion

Of 121 developers who shipped a Desktop Companion Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 186 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×5.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×419 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 186 games are announced against 97 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 186 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Desktop Companion
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 121
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $178k → $52k → $10k → $2.1k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Desktop Companion: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 121
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,075)
Median $3.2k (exactly $3,232)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,222)
Top 5% $263k (exactly $262,951)
Developers, 2 yr 121
Released games 162
Announced 186
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 305% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Desktop Companion
effort 1 / 10 · high · effort 1 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Desktop Companion; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Creature Collector, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 32,908 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $3.2k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 4 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 186 games are announced against 97 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cast n Chill $14.99 8,383 94% 251k $3.8M (exactly $3,769,835) Wombat Brawler
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid
Maltese's Fluffy Onsen $5.99 2,727 94% 82k $490k (exactly $490,042) Sinkhole Studio, Moonlab Studio
Ropuka's Idle Island $3.99 4,048 95% 121k $485k (exactly $484,546) Moczan, Little Chmura, Begoña Pereda
Birdwatching Notebook $9.99 1,588 97% 48k $476k (exactly $475,924) Biekka Games
Fish to Dish: Idle Sushi $5.99 2,525 96% 76k $454k (exactly $453,742) Kygua Tech
Your Big, Cute Monster Farm $7.99 1,097 78% 33k $263k (exactly $262,951) KaiPlay Studio
Cornerpond $2.99 2,567 97% 77k $230k (exactly $230,260) foolsroom
How to Train Your Cock $3.99 1,875 95% 56k $224k (exactly $224,438) Little Horror Studios
My Little Life $5.99 1,043 89% 31k $187k (exactly $187,427) 9FingerGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.