Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding Simulation game?

Simulation + Deckbuilding

Of 242 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 327 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $570k, ×922 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 327 games are announced against 153 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 327 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 242
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $114k → $17k → $3.6k → $13k → $3.9k → $2.7k (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 242
Bottom 30% $416 (exactly $416)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,726)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $33,566)
Top 5% $579k (exactly $578,757)
Developers, 2 yr 242
Released games 391
Announced 327
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Deckbuilding; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 25,667 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $570k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 104 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 327 games are announced against 153 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stacklands older $7.99 29,244 96% 877k $7.0M (exactly $7,009,787) Sokpop Collective
Potionomics older $24.99 6,973 90% 209k $5.2M (exactly $5,227,658) Voracious Games
Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist : Link Evolution older $39.99 3,905 82% 117k $4.7M (exactly $4,684,828) Other Ocean Emeryville
I Was a Teenage Exocolonist older $24.99 4,443 96% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,330,917) Northway Games
BOOK OF HOURS older $24.99 4,129 89% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,095,511) Weather Factory
Luck be a Landlord older $9.99 10,213 93% 306k $3.1M (exactly $3,060,836) TrampolineTales
Ratropolis older $17.99 5,187 87% 156k $2.8M (exactly $2,799,424) Cassel Games
Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist older $19.99 4,452 83% 134k $2.7M (exactly $2,669,864) Other Ocean Interactive
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Esports Godfather older $19.99 4,319 90% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,590,104) Asteroid Game Studio
Slots & Daggers $7.99 7,421 93% 223k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) Friedemann
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
Menace from the Deep $16.99 2,466 84% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) Flat Lab
Office Life $19.99 1,725 88% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,034,482) LeiYun Games
Commander Quest $11.99 2,804 74% 84k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,599) Flyway Games, Inc.
Ballionaire $12.34 2,398 85% 72k $888k (exactly $887,740) newobject
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
ShapeHero Factory $23.99 991 88% 30k $713k (exactly $713,223) Asobism.Co.,Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.