Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Cooking

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cooking Simulation game?

Simulation + Cooking

Of 439 developers who shipped a Cooking Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 843 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1192 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 843 games are announced against 277 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 843 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Cooking
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 439
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $6.7k → $6.6k → $9.9k → $7.1k → $6.6k → $2.4k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Cooking: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 439
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,908)
Top 5% $749k (exactly $748,760)
Developers, 2 yr 439
Released games 860
Announced 843
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Cooking; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Life Sim, Crafting
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 81,459 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 200 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 843 games are announced against 277 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Overcooked! 2 older $24.99 61,956 90% 1.9M $46M (exactly $46,448,413) Ghost Town Games Ltd., Team17
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Hello Kitty Island Adventure $39.99 9,637 93% 289k $12M (exactly $11,561,509) Sunblink
Cooking Simulator older $19.99 17,837 84% 535k $11M (exactly $10,696,849) Big Cheese Studio
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
Starsand Island $39.99 5,898 76% 177k $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) Seed Sparkle Lab
Overcooked older $16.99 13,528 89% 406k $6.9M (exactly $6,895,222) Ghost Town Games Ltd.
Overcooked! All You Can Eat older $39.99 5,744 73% 172k $6.9M (exactly $6,891,077) Team17 Digital, Ghost Town Games
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.
Tavern Keeper 🍻 · EA $29.99 4,563 94% 137k $4.1M (exactly $4,105,331) Greenheart Games 💚
Fast Food Simulator · EA $14.99 8,653 86% 260k $3.9M (exactly $3,891,254) No Ceiling Games
Kebab Chefs! - Restaurant Simulator $17.99 7,019 83% 211k $3.8M (exactly $3,788,154) Biotech Gameworks
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
Tales of the Shire: A The Lord of The Rings™ Game $34.99 3,237 81% 97k $3.4M (exactly $3,397,879) Wētā Workshop
Wanderstop $24.99 2,938 92% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,202,619) Ivy Road

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.