Do I ship it?

Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Combat Racing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Racing Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Combat Racing

Only 13 developers shipped a Combat Racing Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Warhammer 40,000: Speed Freeks, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 38 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 495% on the market, 38 announced, ×6.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Combat Racing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $300 → $178 → $180 → $449 → $597 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Combat Racing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $719 (exactly $719)
Top 5% $296k (exactly $295,652)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 41
Announced 38
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 495% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Combat Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle physics plus weapons and AI drivers

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Combat Racing; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Racing, Action, Driving
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 546 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $240, 1 in 4 over $710, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SAND LAND 2024 · $1.8M Warhammer 40,000: Speed Freeks 2025 · $296k KEO 2021 · EA · $8.1k Deliverage 2026 · $6.6k Zaacar 2021 · EA · $4.7k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SAND LAND older $59.99 1,018 86% 31k $1.8M (exactly $1,832,095) ILCA, Inc.
Warhammer 40,000: Speed Freeks $19.99 493 85% 15k $296k (exactly $295,652) Caged Element
KEO · EA older $9.99 27 74% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Redcatpig Studio
Deliverage $12.99 17 82% 510 $6.6k (exactly $6,625) Majao Games
Zaacar · EA older $11.99 13 38% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Axoora
Ma3 older $9.99 13 69% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Matheesan, Ahila
LivingForest $15.99 8 62% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) LivingEveryday
Rose Action older $4.99 25 32% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) Ma Ge Game
Bear No Grudge older $8.99 10 80% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Jonathan Francis
Burst Planet · EA older $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) KX Games
RollBot $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Tsukoni
Lawnmower Game Battle 2: Reload $1.99 10 90% 300 $597 (exactly $597) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software
Motor Racing Battle $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Liquid Meow
Yuki Onna: Snowball Fight! $1.99 4 75% 120 $239 (exactly $239) YStar
Niut $3.00 2 50% 60 $180 (exactly $180) AF Works ®
Drone Strike: Engineer Simulator · EA $1.19 5 80% 150 $178 (exactly $178) Bazura Games
Delivery Mayhem $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Volantibus

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.