Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + City Builder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a City Builder Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + City Builder

Only 12 developers shipped a City Builder Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Death row inmates on the run 2--The Resistance, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 15 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + City Builder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + City Builder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $446 (exactly $446)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,554)
Top 5% $18k (exactly $18,034)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 25
Announced 15
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, City Builder
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 57% positive over 148 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $450, 1 in 4 over $4.5k, 1 in 20 over $18k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Daggan older $9.99 97 79% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Malerouille
Death row inmates on the run 2--The Resistance $6.99 86 55% 2.6k $18k (exactly $18,034) zzzgame
Valand older $7.99 54 59% 1.6k $13k (exactly $12,944) LOMS Studio
WarOfGods 2 $29.99 13 76% 390 $12k (exactly $11,696) Mensa World
Climber Girl $7.99 19 36% 570 $4.6k (exactly $4,554) AlterLab Development
LivingForest $15.99 8 62% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) LivingEveryday
My Name is Sarah older $3.99 25 28% 750 $3.0k (exactly $2,992) ONUR GENCAY GÖKÇE, HAZAR DEMİROK, FİGEN… (ONUR GENCAY GÖKÇE, HAZAR DEMİROK, FİGEN SU YILMAZ, İREM KAMURAY)
Saving Mei · EA older $3.99 19 47% 570 $2.3k (exactly $2,274) SavingM
Doomsday School older $9.99 6 16% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Doomsday
Researchity | Open World Survival Game · EA older $34.99 1 0% 30 $1.1k (exactly $1,050) TheGameMill
SurrounDead Poly Construction $15.99 1 100% 30 $480 (exactly $480) LivingEveryday
SurrounDead Poly ‌Japan Sakura · EA $15.99 1 100% 30 $480 (exactly $480) LivingEveryday
Doomvile Brainrot $0.99 15 66% 450 $446 (exactly $446) Gamesforgames
Domefender $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) StuffInChest
Alfons World $1.99 3 66% 90 $179 (exactly $179) Dog On God
PARTICLE: Into the Void $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Part of Void

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.