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Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Simulation game?
Simulation + Choose Your Own Adventure
Of 630 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 976 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×577 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 976 games are announced against 373 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $718 (exactly $718) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.8k (exactly $3,778) |
| Top 25% | $29k (exactly $29,071) |
| Top 5% | $362k (exactly $362,139) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 630 |
| Released games | 2,025 |
| Announced | 976 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation, Choose Your Own Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Visual Novel, Adventure
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 76,973 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 400 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 976 games are announced against 373 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal 2023 · $114M 
People Playground 2019 · $89M 
Anno 1800 2019 · $54M 
Disney Dreamlight Valley 2023 · $26M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | 鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal | older | $19.99 | 190,184 56% | 5.7M | $114M (exactly $114,053,345) | 鬼谷工作室 |
| | People Playground | older | $9.99 | 298,158 98% | 8.9M | $89M (exactly $89,357,953) | mestiez |
| | Anno 1800 | older | $59.99 | 29,854 81% | 896k | $54M (exactly $53,728,244) | Ubisoft Mainz |
| | Disney Dreamlight Valley | older | $39.99 | 22,027 92% | 661k | $26M (exactly $26,425,792) | Gameloft |
 | Anno 117: Pax Romana | $59.99 | 12,150 69% | 365k | $22M (exactly $21,866,355) | Ubisoft Mainz | |
 | FTL: Faster Than Light | older | $9.99 | 62,763 94% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,810,071) | Subset Games |
 | Sultan's Game | $24.99 | 25,061 93% | 752k | $19M (exactly $18,788,232) | Double Cross | |
 | Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut | older | $17.99 | 31,885 96% | 957k | $17M (exactly $17,208,334) | Black Tabby Games |
 | Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion | older | $17.99 | 22,287 84% | 669k | $12M (exactly $12,028,294) | 半瓶醋工作室（Half Amateur Studio） |
 | Date Everything! | $29.99 | 6,629 93% | 199k | $6.0M (exactly $5,964,111) | Sassy Chap Games | |
 | Tavern Keeper 🍻 | · EA | $29.99 | 4,563 94% | 137k | $4.1M (exactly $4,105,331) | Greenheart Games 💚 |
 | Five Hearts Under One Roof | $19.99 | 5,881 91% | 176k | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) | Storytaco | |
 | Magical Princess | $14.99 | 7,636 96% | 229k | $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) | Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc. | |
 | Hollywood Animal | · EA | $19.99 | 3,845 73% | 115k | $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) | Weappy Wholesome |
 | Car Service Together | · EA | $19.99 | 3,589 79% | 108k | $2.2M (exactly $2,152,323) | V12 Studio |
 | Beholder: Conductor | $13.99 | 4,532 91% | 136k | $1.9M (exactly $1,902,080) | Alawar | |
 | Sovereign Tower | $19.99 | 3,087 93% | 93k | $1.9M (exactly $1,851,274) | WILD WITS GAMES |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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