Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Character Customization

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Character Customization Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Character Customization

Of 122 developers who shipped a Character Customization Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 332 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×2428 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 332 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 332 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Character Customization
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 122
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $6.0k → $1.5k → $449 → $3.5k → $2.3k → $1.8k (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Character Customization: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 122
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $55,168)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194)
Developers, 2 yr 122
Released games 378
Announced 332
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Character Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Character Customization; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 390,743 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 70 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 332 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Fallout 4 older $19.99 290,555 81% 8.7M $174M (exactly $174,245,834) Bethesda Game Studios
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition older $59.99 62,205 91% 1.9M $112M (exactly $111,950,338) BioWare
STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II older $39.99 87,494 88% 2.6M $105M (exactly $104,966,552) DICE
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Breakpoint older $59.99 44,635 72% 1.3M $80M (exactly $80,329,610) Ubisoft Paris
Plants vs. Zombies™ Garden Warfare 2: Deluxe Edition older $29.99 45,480 90% 1.4M $41M (exactly $40,918,356) PopCap
REMATCH $29.99 39,905 70% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,902,528) Sloclap
Red Dead Online older $19.99 59,572 82% 1.8M $36M (exactly $35,725,328) Rockstar Games
Saints Row IV: Re-Elected older $19.99 57,525 87% 1.7M $34M (exactly $34,497,742) Deep Silver Volition
Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 older $29.99 32,600 79% 978k $29M (exactly $29,330,220) Ubisoft
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
VEIN · EA $19.99 11,539 87% 346k $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) Ramjet Studios
Aliens: Fireteam Elite 2 $49.99 3,515 61% 105k $5.3M (exactly $5,271,446) Cold Iron Studios
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
M.A.S.S. Builder $24.99 3,729 85% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,631) Vermillion Digital
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
Voidling Bound $24.99 3,126 92% 94k $2.3M (exactly $2,343,562) Hatchery Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.