Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Battler Simulation game?

Simulation + Card Battler

Of 152 developers who shipped a Card Battler Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 182 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $800k, ×1276 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 182 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 182 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 152
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $14k → $21k → $3.6k → $2.2k → $7.9k → $479 (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 152
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,166)
Top 5% $801k (exactly $801,199)
Developers, 2 yr 152
Released games 327
Announced 182
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Card Battler; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Card Game
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 27,973 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 88 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 182 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
觅长生 older $14.99 27,072 93% 812k $12M (exactly $12,174,278) Chalcedony Network
Stacklands older $7.99 29,244 96% 877k $7.0M (exactly $7,009,787) Sokpop Collective
Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist : Link Evolution older $39.99 3,905 82% 117k $4.7M (exactly $4,684,828) Other Ocean Emeryville
Ratropolis older $17.99 5,187 87% 156k $2.8M (exactly $2,799,424) Cassel Games
Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist older $19.99 4,452 83% 134k $2.7M (exactly $2,669,864) Other Ocean Interactive
Esports Godfather older $19.99 4,319 90% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,590,104) Asteroid Game Studio
Moonstone Island older $19.99 4,063 84% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,436,581) Studio Supersoft
Slots & Daggers $7.99 7,421 93% 223k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) Friedemann
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Menace from the Deep $16.99 2,466 84% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) Flat Lab
Out of the Park Baseball 26 $49.99 819 82% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) Out of the Park Developments
Office Life $19.99 1,725 88% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,034,482) LeiYun Games
Commander Quest $11.99 2,804 74% 84k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,599) Flyway Games, Inc.
Ballionaire $12.34 2,398 85% 72k $888k (exactly $887,740) newobject
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Guilty as Sock! $5.50 4,836 89% 145k $798k (exactly $797,940) Demon Max
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.