Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Hell Simulation game?

Simulation + Bullet Hell

Of 117 developers who shipped a Bullet Hell Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 129 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 77 developers shipped in the last year and 129 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 129 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 117
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $297 → $479 → $2.1k → $359 → $776 → $898 → $267 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 117
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,058)
Top 5% $98k (exactly $98,116)
Developers, 2 yr 117
Released games 334
Announced 129
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Bullet Hell; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 7,373 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $420, 1 in 4 over $3.0k, 1 in 20 over $98k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 9 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 129 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Atomicrops older $14.99 5,134 93% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) Bird Bath Games
Battle Ram older $29.99 2,204 85% 66k $2.0M (exactly $1,982,939) Runic Rise Games
Reassembly older $14.99 3,611 94% 108k $1.6M (exactly $1,623,867) Anisoptera Games
LUFTRAUSERS older $9.99 3,398 91% 102k $1.0M (exactly $1,018,381) Vlambeer
ShapeHero Factory $23.99 991 88% 30k $713k (exactly $713,223) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Be My Horde · EA older $9.99 2,052 85% 62k $615k (exactly $614,984) Polished Games
Fantasy Maiden Wars - DREAM OF THE STRAY DREAMER - $34.99 582 98% 17k $611k (exactly $610,925) さんぼん堂
Disney•Pixar Cars 2: The Video Game older $19.99 970 79% 29k $582k (exactly $581,709) Avalanche Software
Astro Prospector $4.99 3,223 91% 97k $482k (exactly $482,483) Incrementalist
Necrosmith older $2.99 4,885 85% 147k $438k (exactly $438,185) Alawar
Gigantes Ex Machina · EA $14.99 300 84% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) AcrylByte, SEO INSEOK
Void Miner – Incremental Asteroids Roguelite $5.99 698 83% 21k $125k (exactly $125,431) RyanJakob
Minutescape $5.99 546 74% 16k $98k (exactly $98,116) Molter
Slimekeep $14.99 109 87% 3.3k $49k (exactly $49,017) BenBonk
DEFRAG $2.99 534 93% 16k $48k (exactly $47,900) BlueDot Studio
Antivirus PROTOCOL $4.99 313 87% 9.4k $47k (exactly $46,856) FIREHIVE Studio
ArmorSim · EA $18.99 77 57% 2.3k $44k (exactly $43,867) Timerlan Galimov

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.