Should I ship a BMX Bike game?
Bikes + BMX
Only 6 developers shipped a BMX Bike game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MAVRIX by Matt Jones, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.
Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.1k against a market of $1.5k. 10 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $479 (exactly $479) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.1k (exactly $2,096) |
| Top 25% | $103k (exactly $102,981) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 6 |
| Released games | 34 |
| Announced | 10 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10180% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Bikes, BMX
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 62,278 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $480. 10 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Bikes with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SportsFair
- + Action-AdventureFair
- + SimulationFair
- + PvPFair
- + Character CustomizationFair
- + MotocrossLong shot
- + DrivingPoor odds
- + CyclingPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + PhysicsPoor odds
- + AdventurePoor odds
- + RacingPoor odds
Comparable games
Riders Republic 2023 · $37M 
Descenders 2019 · $15M 
BMX Streets 2024 · $3.3M 
PIPE by BMX Streets 2018 · $1.6M 
MAVRIX by Matt Jones 2026 · $1.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Riders Republic | older | $39.99 | 30,458 81% | 914k | $37M (exactly $36,540,463) | Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Pune, Ubisoft Odesa) |
| | Descenders | older | $24.99 | 19,836 95% | 595k | $15M (exactly $14,871,049) | RageSquid |
| | BMX Streets | older | $24.99 | 4,366 80% | 131k | $3.3M (exactly $3,273,190) | Mash Games |
| | PIPE by BMX Streets | older | $9.99 | 5,351 92% | 161k | $1.6M (exactly $1,603,695) | Mash Games |
| | MAVRIX by Matt Jones | $39.99 | 969 80% | 29k | $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) | Third Kind Games | |
 | BMX The Game | · EA older | $24.99 | 448 60% | 13k | $336k (exactly $335,866) | Barspin Studios |
 | VMX | · EA | $14.99 | 229 89% | 6.9k | $103k (exactly $102,981) | Break Free Interactive |
 | Motordoom | older | $13.99 | 174 94% | 5.2k | $73k (exactly $73,028) | Hobo Cat Games |
 | Pumped BMX + | older | $9.99 | 234 85% | 7.0k | $70k (exactly $70,130) | Yeah Us! |
 | Shred! 2 - ft Sam Pilgrim | older | $9.99 | 213 86% | 6.4k | $64k (exactly $63,836) | ASBO Interactive |
 | pedalverse | $4.99 | 14 42% | 420 | $2.1k (exactly $2,096) | FuristicStudio | |
 | Legends BMX | $9.99 | 6 83% | 180 | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) | Saga Legends Games | |
 | Bike Park Simulator: BMX, Dirt Jump & MTB | · EA | $7.99 | 2 0% | 60 | $479 (exactly $479) | Hard Shark Games |
 | Pedals in Panic | $4.99 | 2 0% | 60 | $299 (exactly $299) | MOJODYNAMIC |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.