Do I ship it?

Games › Bikes › Bikes + Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy Bike game?

Bikes + Strategy

Only 13 developers shipped a Strategy Bike game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Pro Cycling Manager 25, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. Revenue is down 60% on the market, with 6 games announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 6 announced, ×0.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bikes + Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $126k → $1.5k → $238 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bikes + Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,468)
Top 5% $218k (exactly $218,345)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 30
Announced 6
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bikes
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Bikes, Strategy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Cycling, Management
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 917 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 6 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bikes with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  2. + Action-AdventureFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  3. + SimulationFair30 devs · median $1.5k · 29 announced
  4. + PvPFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  5. + Character CustomizationFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 10 announced
  6. + MotocrossLong shot12 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  7. + DrivingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.3k · 28 announced
  8. + CyclingPoor odds13 devs · median $4.2k · 21 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $4.2k · 16 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  11. + AdventurePoor odds20 devs · median $2.1k · 22 announced
  12. + RacingPoor odds37 devs · median $1.8k · 36 announced

All 21 pairs on the Bikes page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Pro Cycling Manager 25 2025 · $595k Pro Cycling Manager 2022 2022 · $519k Pro Cycling Manager 2023 2023 · $465k Pro Cycling Manager 2021 2021 · $413k Pro Cycling Manager 2020 2020 · $361k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pro Cycling Manager 25 $39.99 496 75% 15k $595k (exactly $595,051) Cyanide Studio
Pro Cycling Manager 2022 older $39.99 433 85% 13k $519k (exactly $519,470) Cyanide Studio
Pro Cycling Manager 2023 older $39.99 388 74% 12k $465k (exactly $465,484) Cyanide Studio
Pro Cycling Manager 2021 older $39.99 344 77% 10k $413k (exactly $412,697) Cyanide Studio
Pro Cycling Manager 2020 older $19.99 602 85% 18k $361k (exactly $361,019) Cyanide Studio
Biker Garage: Mechanic Simulator older $24.99 476 65% 14k $357k (exactly $356,857) BeardedBrothers.games
Tour de France 2025 $39.99 182 77% 5.5k $218k (exactly $218,345) Cyanide Studio
Pro Cycling Manager 26 $39.99 116 65% 3.5k $139k (exactly $139,165) Cyanide Studio
Tour de France 2024 older $39.99 114 85% 3.4k $137k (exactly $136,766) Cyanide Studio
Tour de France 2023 older $39.99 105 82% 3.2k $126k (exactly $125,968) Cyanide
Tour de France 2026 $39.99 64 75% 1.9k $77k (exactly $76,781) Cyanide Studios
Dramatic Road : the origin of wind $13.99 42 97% 1.3k $18k (exactly $17,627) Alaska Ohdanbu
PicoMix by NuSan $6.99 7 100% 210 $1.5k (exactly $1,468) NuSan, Potico Games
DA PAPER BOY $10.99 4 75% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) 3D Dojo Studios
Type Ride · EA $8.99 2 100% 60 $539 (exactly $539) NOT__OK''
Pedals in Panic $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) MOJODYNAMIC
Bike Stunt 3D Freestyle $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Nitx Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.