Do I ship it?

GamesBikesBikes + Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Platformer Bike game?

Bikes + Platformer

Only 5 developers shipped a Platformer Bike game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Swiftrace Canyon, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4k, ×4.3 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 4 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 4 announced, ×0.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bikes + Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Bikes + Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $299 (exactly $299)
Top 5% $6.5k (exactly $6,475)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 27
Announced 4
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: too few recent games to read.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bikes
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Bikes, Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 6,096 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $240, 1 in 4 over $290, 1 in 20 over $6.4k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 4 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bikes with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  2. + Action-AdventureFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  3. + SimulationFair30 devs · median $1.5k · 29 announced
  4. + PvPFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  5. + Character CustomizationFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 10 announced
  6. + MotocrossLong shot12 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  7. + DrivingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.3k · 28 announced
  8. + CyclingPoor odds13 devs · median $4.2k · 21 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $4.2k · 16 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  11. + AdventurePoor odds20 devs · median $2.1k · 22 announced
  12. + RacingPoor odds37 devs · median $1.8k · 36 announced

All 21 pairs on the Bikes page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Trials® Rising older $19.99 2,860 62% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,715,142) RedLynx
Trials Evolution: Gold Edition older $19.99 2,253 74% 68k $1.4M (exactly $1,351,124) Redlynx Ltd, Ubisoft Shanghaï
Turbo Kid older $19.99 402 92% 12k $241k (exactly $241,079) Outerminds Inc.
Steel Rats™ older $9.99 310 63% 9.3k $93k (exactly $92,907) Tate Multimedia
FutureGrind older $19.99 59 91% 1.8k $35k (exactly $35,382) Milkbag Games
Icycle: On Thin Ice older $6.99 107 96% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,438) Damp Gnat
Urban Trial Tricky™ Deluxe Edition older $19.99 16 56% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Tate Multimedia
Watch Your Ride - Bicycle Game older $7.99 31 80% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Tiny Magicians
Homeland older $5.99 40 65% 1.2k $7.2k (exactly $7,188) HeadHunters games
Swiftrace Canyon $11.99 18 100% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) Optimotter
Pedals in Panic $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) MOJODYNAMIC
Chained Bikes $1.99 4 100% 120 $239 (exactly $239) Enceladus Games
JumPixelBike $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Tomiomi Games
Bike Stunts Simulator · EA $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hard Shark Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.