Do I ship it?

GamesBikesBikes + Offroad

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bikes Offroad game?

Bikes + Offroad

Only 8 developers shipped a Bikes Offroad game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sledders, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $960 against a market of $1.5k. 5 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 5 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bikes + Offroad
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.6k → $1.5k → $90
Outcomes for Bikes + Offroad: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 5% $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 32
Announced 5
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bikes
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Offroad
effort 7 / 10 · low · terrain and suspension physics

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Bikes, Offroad
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 53,671 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $960, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 5 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bikes with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  2. + Action-AdventureFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  3. + SimulationFair30 devs · median $1.5k · 29 announced
  4. + PvPFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  5. + Character CustomizationFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 10 announced
  6. + MotocrossLong shot12 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  7. + DrivingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.3k · 28 announced
  8. + CyclingPoor odds13 devs · median $4.2k · 21 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $4.2k · 16 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  11. + AdventurePoor odds20 devs · median $2.1k · 22 announced
  12. + RacingPoor odds37 devs · median $1.8k · 36 announced

All 21 pairs on the Bikes page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MX Bikes · EA older $34.99 35,684 94% 1.1M $37M (exactly $37,457,495) PiBoSo
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
TrackDayR · EA older $24.99 2,213 86% 66k $1.7M (exactly $1,659,086) MadCow S.r.l.
Lonely Mountains: Downhill older $19.99 2,741 89% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) Megagon Industries
MX vs ATV All Out older $39.99 1,332 81% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,598,000) Rainbow Studios
Dakar Desert Rally older $29.99 1,475 56% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,058) Saber Porto Ltd.
MXGP3 - The Official Motocross Videogame older $19.99 1,032 86% 31k $619k (exactly $618,890) Milestone S.r.l.
MX vs. ATV Supercross Encore older $29.99 629 62% 19k $566k (exactly $565,911) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
MXGP - The Official Motocross Videogame older $9.99 1,289 82% 39k $386k (exactly $386,313) Milestone S.r.l.
Moxter $9.99 9 55% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Aisten Lab, Dalton Bastos
MX Bodycam Bikes Racing · EA $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) GLOBAL SCRIPTUM
MX Racing World $7.99 4 50% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Nitx Games
Dark Rally $6.99 4 50% 120 $839 (exactly $839) PLOP Studio
Quad Puzzler $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) SmartGames
Hot Rod Racer $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) ZeNfA Productions
Rutted $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) ApeXPloit Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.