Do I ship it?

GamesBikesBikes + Motorbike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bikes Motorbike game?

Bikes + Motorbike

Of 24 developers who shipped a Bikes Motorbike game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 28 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper, while revenue is up 90% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 28 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bikes + Motorbike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $8.2k → $1.0k → $150 → $4.3k → $2.5k → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bikes + Motorbike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,757)
Top 5% $888k (exactly $887,822)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 102
Announced 28
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bikes
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Motorbike
effort 7 / 10 · low · two-wheel physics and rider animation

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Bikes, Motorbike; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Racing, Simulation, Sports
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, First-Person, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 6,360 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $960, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $880k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bikes with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  2. + Action-AdventureFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  3. + SimulationFair30 devs · median $1.5k · 29 announced
  4. + PvPFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  5. + Character CustomizationFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 10 announced
  6. + MotocrossLong shot12 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  7. + DrivingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.3k · 28 announced
  8. + CyclingPoor odds13 devs · median $4.2k · 21 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $4.2k · 16 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  11. + AdventurePoor odds20 devs · median $2.1k · 22 announced
  12. + RacingPoor odds37 devs · median $1.8k · 36 announced

All 21 pairs on the Bikes page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MX Bikes · EA older $34.99 35,684 94% 1.1M $37M (exactly $37,457,495) PiBoSo
RIDE 4 older $39.99 9,921 83% 298k $12M (exactly $11,902,224) Milestone S.r.l.
RIDE 5 older $49.99 3,368 82% 101k $5.1M (exactly $5,050,990) Milestone S.r.l.
RIDE 3 older $29.99 4,534 84% 136k $4.1M (exactly $4,079,240) Milestone S.r.l.
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
Ride 2 older $24.99 2,499 87% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,873,500) Milestone S.r.l.
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
TrackDayR · EA older $24.99 2,213 86% 66k $1.7M (exactly $1,659,086) MadCow S.r.l.
MX vs ATV All Out older $39.99 1,332 81% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,598,000) Rainbow Studios
MXGP 2021 - The Official Motocross Videogame older $39.99 1,165 85% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,650) Milestone S.r.l.
RIDE 6 $59.99 549 68% 16k $988k (exactly $988,035) Milestone S.r.l.
MotoGP™25 $49.99 592 74% 18k $888k (exactly $887,822) Milestone S.r.l.
MotoGP™26 $59.99 225 64% 6.8k $405k (exactly $404,932) Milestone S.r.l.
VRacer Hoverbike $29.99 307 89% 9.2k $276k (exactly $276,208) VertexBreakers
Motorcycle Night Ride · EA $5.99 213 76% 6.4k $38k (exactly $38,276) Suber Game Studio, Room Games
Dramatic Road : the origin of wind $13.99 42 97% 1.3k $18k (exactly $17,627) Alaska Ohdanbu
Moto Rush Reborn $12.99 43 97% 1.3k $17k (exactly $16,757) Baltoro Games
風雨来記5 $59.99 8 87% 240 $14k (exactly $14,398) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc.
Grind Rush $15.99 9 66% 270 $4.3k (exactly $4,317) AND GEAR

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.