Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Beat 'em up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Beat 'em up Simulation game?

Simulation + Beat 'em up

Of 49 developers who shipped a Beat 'em up Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 62 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper, while revenue is down 65% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 62 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Beat 'em up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $1.8k → $2.7k → $748 → $478 → $719 → $239 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Beat 'em up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,747)
Top 5% $109k (exactly $108,864)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 184
Announced 62
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Beat 'em up
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Beat 'em up; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Physics, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 64% positive over 3,318 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $420, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Police Simulator: Patrol Officers older $39.99 18,880 75% 566k $23M (exactly $22,650,336) Aesir Interactive
Bully: Scholarship Edition older $14.99 37,562 84% 1.1M $17M (exactly $16,891,631) Rockstar New England
Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin older $29.99 5,004 92% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,502,099) Edelweiss
Punch Club older $9.99 12,098 81% 363k $3.6M (exactly $3,625,771) Lazy Bear Games
Shenmue I & II older $29.99 2,144 89% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,928,957) D3T
Wrestling Empire older $19.99 3,036 94% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,689) MDickie
Endorphin Vice · EA older $9.99 3,436 56% 103k $1.0M (exactly $1,029,769) Endorphin Studios
Beyond Sandbox · EA $19.99 1,223 39% 37k $733k (exactly $733,433) Atlas XR
Troublemaker older $19.99 938 89% 28k $563k (exactly $562,519) Gamecom Team
Tales Of Glory older $10.99 1,042 80% 31k $344k (exactly $343,547) BlackTale Games
Superhero Simulator · EA $5.99 867 73% 26k $156k (exactly $155,800) mightyraccoon! Studios
LES MILLS XR BODYCOMBAT $29.99 121 85% 3.6k $109k (exactly $108,864) Odders Lab
Troublemaker 2: Beyond Dream $24.99 142 95% 4.3k $106k (exactly $106,457) Gamecom Team
Femboy Futa Mania 🌶️ $14.99 174 71% 5.2k $78k (exactly $78,248) Lewd Star
IGNOBLE $6.99 331 82% 9.9k $69k (exactly $69,411) Retromagine
FUTA FIGHT & FUCK 🥊 $14.99 115 92% 3.5k $52k (exactly $51,716) BanzaiProject
MoonMiners · EA $4.99 200 93% 6.0k $30k (exactly $29,940) MIROWIN
Drunkn Bar Fight 2 VR · EA $12.99 64 50% 1.9k $25k (exactly $24,941) Yooperlite
Gorilla Vs 100 Men $4.99 81 70% 2.4k $12k (exactly $12,126) GrodGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.