Do I ship it?

GamesAsynchronous MultiplayerAsynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Asynchronous Multiplayer Turn-Based Tactics?

Asynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 43 developers who shipped an Asynchronous Multiplayer Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×416 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 62 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 62 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Asynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $37k → $4.1k → $19k → $13k → $11k → $2.9k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Asynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,936)
Top 25% $63k (exactly $62,968)
Top 5% $261k (exactly $261,276)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 112
Announced 62
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Asynchronous Multiplayer, Turn-Based Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, PvP
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 4,396 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $62k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Asynchronous Multiplayer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Turn-BasedStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds10 devs · median $25k · 12 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  4. + Board GameFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  5. + WarFair14 devs · median $6.0k · 20 announced
  6. + Turn-Based StrategyFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  7. + Strategy RPGFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  8. + SpaceLong shot15 devs · median $299 · 18 announced
  9. + Tactical RPGPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  10. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $56k · 48 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $56k · 18 announced
  12. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $53k · 38 announced

All 76 pairs on the Asynchronous Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Battlesector older $39.99 5,064 88% 152k $6.1M (exactly $6,075,281) Slitherine Ltd.
Turmoil older $12.99 13,154 92% 395k $5.1M (exactly $5,126,114) Gamious
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
Dominions 6 - Rise of the Pantokrator older $44.99 1,686 90% 51k $2.3M (exactly $2,275,594) Illwinter Game Design
Despot's Game: Dystopian Battle Simulator older $19.99 2,878 83% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,725,937) Konfa Games
Through the Ages older $15.99 2,188 90% 66k $1.0M (exactly $1,049,584) CGE Digital
Frozen Synapse older $24.99 1,108 89% 33k $831k (exactly $830,668) Mode 7
Twilight Struggle older $9.99 2,568 86% 77k $770k (exactly $769,630) Playdek, Inc.
Field of Glory II older $29.99 705 87% 21k $634k (exactly $634,288) Byzantine Games
Ozymandias: Bronze Age Empire Sim older $14.99 1,306 89% 39k $587k (exactly $587,308) The Secret Games Company
Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island $39.99 470 85% 14k $564k (exactly $563,859) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Wretch: Divine Ascent $14.99 975 75% 29k $438k (exactly $438,458) Ogopogo
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
Monster Battles $14.99 459 74% 14k $206k (exactly $206,412) Fourteen
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
NEODUEL: Backpack Monsters $11.99 357 79% 11k $128k (exactly $128,413) dicehit, Rogue Duck Interactive
Water Margin Scrolls $9.99 244 40% 7.3k $73k (exactly $73,127) QingHe Games
No Retreat! The Russian Front $29.99 80 76% 2.4k $72k (exactly $71,976) Cyril Jarnot, Avalon Digital

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.