Do I ship it?

Games › Asynchronous Multiplayer › Asynchronous Multiplayer + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Asynchronous Multiplayer Puzzle game?

Asynchronous Multiplayer + Puzzle

Of 29 developers who shipped an Asynchronous Multiplayer Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $140; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×319 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 31 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 31 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Asynchronous Multiplayer + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $269 → $6.0k → $1.5k → $1.2k → $16k → $8.5k → $6.5k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Asynchronous Multiplayer + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $135 (exactly $135)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,740)
Top 5% $201k (exactly $200,566)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 93
Announced 31
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.70

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Asynchronous Multiplayer, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Board Game, Strategy, PvP
Price point
$6.70 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.70.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,803 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $140, median $450, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $140. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Asynchronous Multiplayer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Turn-BasedStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds10 devs · median $25k · 12 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  4. + Board GameFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  5. + WarFair14 devs · median $6.0k · 20 announced
  6. + Turn-Based StrategyFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  7. + Strategy RPGFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  8. + SpaceLong shot15 devs · median $299 · 18 announced
  9. + Tactical RPGPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  10. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $56k · 48 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $56k · 18 announced
  12. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $53k · 38 announced

All 76 pairs on the Asynchronous Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Past Within 2022 · $2.6M Root 2020 · $2.3M Tick Tock: A Tale for Two 2019 · $1.8M We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip 2023 · $476k How 2 Escape 2023 · $267k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Past Within older $5.99 14,673 94% 440k $2.6M (exactly $2,636,738) Rusty Lake
Root older $14.99 5,049 90% 151k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,535) Dire Wolf
Tick Tock: A Tale for Two older $5.99 10,006 85% 300k $1.8M (exactly $1,798,078) Other Tales Interactive
We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip older $3.99 3,979 81% 119k $476k (exactly $476,286) Total Mayhem Games
How 2 Escape older $12.99 684 71% 21k $267k (exactly $266,555) Breakfirst Games
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Wargroove 2 older $19.99 403 69% 12k $242k (exactly $241,679) Chucklefish, Robotality
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
Cascadia $14.99 210 98% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Dire Wolf
Quantum Odyssey · EA $17.99 141 92% 4.2k $76k (exactly $76,098) Quarks Interactive
Hidden in my Paradise $9.99 160 90% 4.8k $48k (exactly $47,952) Ogre Pixel
Spider Roulette $4.99 143 91% 4.3k $21k (exactly $21,407) Kud
Codename: Terranova $23.99 23 69% 690 $17k (exactly $16,553) ACGames
TopplePOP: Bungee Blockbusters · EA $14.99 35 97% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) ArkimA
Canvas - The Board Game $14.99 19 89% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) Mipmap Digital
Chess Kingdom $4.99 45 91% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) Pinch Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.