Do I ship it?

Games › Asynchronous Multiplayer › Asynchronous Multiplayer + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Asynchronous Multiplayer Physics game?

Asynchronous Multiplayer + Physics

Of 22 developers who shipped an Asynchronous Multiplayer Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 56 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper, while revenue is up 925% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 925% on the market, 56 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Asynchronous Multiplayer + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $1.9k → $4.3k → $11k → $0 → $839 → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Asynchronous Multiplayer + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,740)
Top 5% $320k (exactly $320,122)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 69
Announced 56
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 925% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Asynchronous Multiplayer, Physics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Sports, Automobile Sim
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 9,814 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $360, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Asynchronous Multiplayer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Turn-BasedStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds10 devs · median $25k · 12 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  4. + Board GameFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  5. + WarFair14 devs · median $6.0k · 20 announced
  6. + Turn-Based StrategyFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  7. + Strategy RPGFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  8. + SpaceLong shot15 devs · median $299 · 18 announced
  9. + Tactical RPGPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  10. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $56k · 48 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $56k · 18 announced
  12. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $53k · 38 announced

All 76 pairs on the Asynchronous Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Assetto Corsa Rally 2025 · EA · $7.9M TRYP FPV: Drone Racer Simulator 2022 · EA · $1.6M Kayak VR: Mirage 2022 · $694k Rush Rally 3 2022 · $436k GearBlocks 2023 · EA · $341k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assetto Corsa Rally · EA $29.99 8,757 87% 263k $7.9M (exactly $7,878,673) Supernova Games Studios
TRYP FPV: Drone Racer Simulator · EA older $16.99 3,155 85% 95k $1.6M (exactly $1,608,103) UNDEAD BATTERY
Kayak VR: Mirage older $22.99 1,006 82% 30k $694k (exactly $693,838) Better Than Life
Rush Rally 3 older $14.99 969 94% 29k $436k (exactly $435,759) Brownmonster Limited
GearBlocks · EA older $14.99 759 90% 23k $341k (exactly $341,322) SmashHammer Games
Disc Golf Masters · EA $24.99 427 83% 13k $320k (exactly $320,122) Spinoff Games
Exo Rally Championship $24.99 374 90% 11k $280k (exactly $280,388) Exbleative
Clash of Chefs VR older $19.99 127 79% 3.8k $76k (exactly $76,162) Flat Hill Games
Hot Lap League: Deluxe Edition older $14.99 169 78% 5.1k $76k (exactly $75,999) Ultimate Studio
RENNSPORT $24.99 87 50% 2.6k $65k (exactly $65,224) Teyon, Competition Company
EXOcars $19.99 106 69% 3.2k $64k (exactly $63,568) XOCUS
TopplePOP: Bungee Blockbusters · EA $14.99 35 97% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) ArkimA
Clank-Robotics $6.99 14 92% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Clank Studios
Drawn to Drift $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) FrogForgeGames
from by $6.99 4 100% 120 $839 (exactly $839) 权威工作室群
Omashu: Snail Racing $2.99 6 100% 180 $538 (exactly $538) The Indie Accord

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.