Do I ship it?

GamesAsynchronous MultiplayerAsynchronous Multiplayer + Loot

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Asynchronous Multiplayer Loot game?

Asynchronous Multiplayer + Loot

Only 16 developers shipped an Asynchronous Multiplayer Loot game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Backpack Battles, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $8.5M, ×13558 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 30 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Asynchronous Multiplayer + Loot
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $55k → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Asynchronous Multiplayer + Loot: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,391)
Top 25% $73k (exactly $73,127)
Top 5% $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 30
Announced 30
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns
Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Asynchronous Multiplayer, Loot
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 21,074 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $73k, 1 in 20 over $8.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Asynchronous Multiplayer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Turn-BasedStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds10 devs · median $25k · 12 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  4. + Board GameFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  5. + WarFair14 devs · median $6.0k · 20 announced
  6. + Turn-Based StrategyFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  7. + Strategy RPGFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  8. + SpaceLong shot15 devs · median $299 · 18 announced
  9. + Tactical RPGPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  10. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $56k · 48 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $56k · 18 announced
  12. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $53k · 38 announced

All 76 pairs on the Asynchronous Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
Down with the Ship · EA $14.99 817 93% 25k $367k (exactly $367,405) Iron Anchor Games
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
Water Margin Scrolls $9.99 244 40% 7.3k $73k (exactly $73,127) QingHe Games
Valefor $14.99 133 66% 4.0k $60k (exactly $59,810) Valefor Ltd
Stash: A Card Looter $9.99 186 79% 5.6k $56k (exactly $55,744) WheeGaming
Empyreal $14.99 123 69% 3.7k $55k (exactly $55,313) Silent Games
GUILT: The Deathless · EA older $16.99 65 80% 2.0k $33k (exactly $33,130) Outer Brain Studios
Tormentis · EA older $19.99 27 88% 810 $16k (exactly $16,192) 4 Hands Games
Idle Inferno $5.99 30 60% 900 $5.4k (exactly $5,391) TUNA TUN
在异世界打怪的修仙者 $3.99 24 79% 720 $2.9k (exactly $2,873) xiaoyuefei
Astaryn: RPG Idler $3.99 19 63% 570 $2.3k (exactly $2,274) Karl Eriksson

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.