Do I ship it?

GamesAsynchronous MultiplayerAsynchronous Multiplayer + Local Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Asynchronous Multiplayer Local Multiplayer game?

Asynchronous Multiplayer + Local Multiplayer

Of 21 developers who shipped an Asynchronous Multiplayer Local Multiplayer game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×416 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 34 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 34 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Asynchronous Multiplayer + Local Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $628 → $242k → $599 → $27k → $29k → $1.3k (still earning) → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Asynchronous Multiplayer + Local Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,314)
Top 5% $261k (exactly $261,276)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 82
Announced 34
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns
Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Asynchronous Multiplayer, Local Multiplayer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry PvP, Strategy, Board Game
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,640 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Asynchronous Multiplayer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Turn-BasedStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds10 devs · median $25k · 12 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  4. + Board GameFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  5. + WarFair14 devs · median $6.0k · 20 announced
  6. + Turn-Based StrategyFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  7. + Strategy RPGFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  8. + SpaceLong shot15 devs · median $299 · 18 announced
  9. + Tactical RPGPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  10. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $56k · 48 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $56k · 18 announced
  12. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $53k · 38 announced

All 76 pairs on the Asynchronous Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
The Past Within older $5.99 14,673 94% 440k $2.6M (exactly $2,636,738) Rusty Lake
Tick Tock: A Tale for Two older $5.99 10,006 85% 300k $1.8M (exactly $1,798,078) Other Tales Interactive
Conquest of Elysium 5 older $29.99 1,872 90% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,684,238) Illwinter Game Design
Frozen Synapse older $24.99 1,108 89% 33k $831k (exactly $830,668) Mode 7
Rush Rally 3 older $14.99 969 94% 29k $436k (exactly $435,759) Brownmonster Limited
Ascension: Deckbuilding Game older $9.99 1,435 88% 43k $430k (exactly $430,070) Playdek, Inc.
Disc Golf Masters · EA $24.99 427 83% 13k $320k (exactly $320,122) Spinoff Games
Antihero older $14.99 658 86% 20k $296k (exactly $295,903) Tim Conkling
Small World older $9.99 931 71% 28k $279k (exactly $279,021) Days of Wonder
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Cascadia $14.99 210 98% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Dire Wolf
Yomi 2 $19.99 104 92% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) Sirlin Games
Nature Game System $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) North Star Digital Games
The Mosquito Gang $5.99 152 70% 4.6k $27k (exactly $27,314) Space Raccoon Game Studio
Super World War $19.99 19 100% 570 $11k (exactly $11,394) Zero Games Studios
Forest of Deceit $9.99 35 100% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Ghost Camp
Chess Kingdom $4.99 45 91% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) Pinch Games
Brutal Ball Manager 2 · EA $9.99 18 100% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Stout Kassel Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.