Do I ship it?

GamesAsynchronous MultiplayerAsynchronous Multiplayer + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Asynchronous Multiplayer game?

Asynchronous Multiplayer + Female Protagonist

Only 10 developers shipped a Female-Led Asynchronous Multiplayer game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Backpack Battles, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $8.5M, ×13558 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 14 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 14 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Asynchronous Multiplayer + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.3k → $1.3k → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Asynchronous Multiplayer + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $809 (exactly $809)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,348)
Top 25% $7.3k (exactly $7,302)
Top 5% $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 25
Announced 14
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Asynchronous Multiplayer
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 91% positive over 19,857 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $7.3k, 1 in 20 over $8.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Asynchronous Multiplayer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Turn-BasedStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds10 devs · median $25k · 12 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  4. + Board GameFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  5. + WarFair14 devs · median $6.0k · 20 announced
  6. + Turn-Based StrategyFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  7. + Strategy RPGFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  8. + SpaceLong shot15 devs · median $299 · 18 announced
  9. + Tactical RPGPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  10. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $56k · 48 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $56k · 18 announced
  12. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $53k · 38 announced

All 76 pairs on the Asynchronous Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
Deceive Inc. older $19.99 4,755 84% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,851,574) Sweet Bandits Studios
Demon Tides $24.99 831 96% 25k $623k (exactly $623,001) Fabraz
How 2 Escape older $12.99 684 71% 21k $267k (exactly $266,555) Breakfirst Games
Clandestine older $9.99 356 79% 11k $107k (exactly $106,693) Logic Artists
Hive older $9.99 244 83% 7.3k $73k (exactly $73,127) BlueLine Games
Eden Genesis older $24.99 81 92% 2.4k $61k (exactly $60,726) Aeternum Game Studios S.L
Erotic Rhythm $3.99 61 90% 1.8k $7.3k (exactly $7,302) Naku Kinoko
Paperback Vol. 2 older $6.99 15 66% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) Fowers Games
ジャリネスハートPro $6.99 14 100% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) savedtekty a.k.a てく
Winken $8.99 5 80% 150 $1.3k (exactly $1,348) PlaySmart
Breecell $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Masagomi Studio
Casa De Diamantes $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) SoulPixel Studio
My Zombie Apocalypse $1.99 3 66% 90 $179 (exactly $179) Kornux Games
Dote On Me: Desktop Pet $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) HEJINJU
Finding Chuchu $12.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) ODDCADIA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.