Do I ship it?

GamesAsynchronous MultiplayerAsynchronous Multiplayer + Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Asynchronous Multiplayer Building game?

Asynchronous Multiplayer + Building

Only 12 developers shipped an Asynchronous Multiplayer Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Planet Coaster 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.9k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $19M, ×31157 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 33 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 33 announced, ×5.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Asynchronous Multiplayer + Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3k → $19k → $63k → $8.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Asynchronous Multiplayer + Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $2.9k (exactly $2,936)
Median $8.9k (exactly $8,902)
Top 25% $131k (exactly $131,334)
Top 5% $20M (exactly $19,566,586)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 37
Announced 33
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns
Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Asynchronous Multiplayer, Building
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 14,329 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $8.9k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $19M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Asynchronous Multiplayer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Turn-BasedStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds10 devs · median $25k · 12 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  4. + Board GameFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  5. + WarFair14 devs · median $6.0k · 20 announced
  6. + Turn-Based StrategyFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  7. + Strategy RPGFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  8. + SpaceLong shot15 devs · median $299 · 18 announced
  9. + Tactical RPGPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  10. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $56k · 48 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $56k · 18 announced
  12. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $53k · 38 announced

All 76 pairs on the Asynchronous Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Planet Coaster 2 $49.99 13,047 74% 391k $20M (exactly $19,566,586) Frontier Developments
Meet Your Maker older $19.99 3,013 73% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,806,896) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
GearBlocks · EA older $14.99 759 90% 23k $341k (exactly $341,322) SmashHammer Games
Territory: Farming and Warfare $14.99 738 84% 22k $332k (exactly $331,879) Wit Studio
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
Concordia: Digital Edition older $19.99 167 83% 5.0k $100k (exactly $100,150) Acram Digital
Barbaria older $19.99 129 93% 3.9k $77k (exactly $77,361) Stalwart Games, LLC
Quantum Odyssey · EA $17.99 141 92% 4.2k $76k (exactly $76,098) Quarks Interactive
Craftlands Workshoppe older $19.99 110 58% 3.3k $66k (exactly $65,967) Arvydas Žemaitis
Screeps: Arena $19.99 105 82% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Screeps, LLC
One King Is Enough $10.99 27 77% 810 $8.9k (exactly $8,902) INVISIBLE GAMES
Assemblands $9.99 27 66% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Tafusoft
Carbox $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Hues Games
Clank-Robotics $6.99 14 92% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Clank Studios
Everforge: Craft Legends $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Ammonite Design Studios Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.