Do I ship it?

Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Arena Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arena Shooter Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Arena Shooter

Of 106 developers who shipped an Arena Shooter Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 244 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 58 developers shipped in the last year and 244 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 244 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Arena Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 106
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $479 → $1.3k → $299 → $299 → $719 → $59 → $359 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Arena Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 106
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 5% $107k (exactly $106,993)
Developers, 2 yr 106
Released games 411
Announced 244
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Arena Shooter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Action-Adventure
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 6,841 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 77 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 244 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Serious Sam 4 2020 · $19M MADNESS: Project Nexus 2021 · $12M Rollerdrome 2022 · $1.3M Vellum 2025 · $774k Worms Rumble 2020 · $764k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Serious Sam 4 older $39.99 15,612 83% 468k $19M (exactly $18,729,716) Croteam
MADNESS: Project Nexus older $24.99 15,977 97% 479k $12M (exactly $11,977,957) GIBBING TREE, LLC
Rollerdrome older $29.99 1,486 91% 45k $1.3M (exactly $1,336,954) Roll7
Vellum $19.99 1,290 89% 39k $774k (exactly $773,613) Alvios Games
Worms Rumble older $14.99 1,698 60% 51k $764k (exactly $763,591) Team17 Digital
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Alien Shooter older $4.99 3,919 95% 118k $587k (exactly $586,674) Sigma Team Inc.
Cheaters Cheetah $9.99 1,406 59% 42k $421k (exactly $421,378) Acmore Games
Apewar · EA older $0.99 6,890 92% 207k $205k (exactly $204,633) Radatomic Studios
BEARS, VODKA, BALALAIKA! 🐻 older $3.99 1,680 89% 50k $201k (exactly $201,096) Rabotiagi games
Birds of War $9.99 439 87% 13k $132k (exactly $131,568) HexNest Games
BeastLink · EA $19.99 187 45% 5.6k $112k (exactly $112,144) Grove Street Games
Last Man Sitting $9.99 357 77% 11k $107k (exactly $106,993) DoubleMoose Games
Death In Abyss $19.99 146 82% 4.4k $88k (exactly $87,556) Agelvik
Last Flag $4.99 576 73% 17k $86k (exactly $86,227) Night Street Games
Cyberpunk SFX $9.99 183 83% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) Whale Rock Games
Only Whores Survive 🔞 $9.99 148 61% 4.4k $44k (exactly $44,356) BanzaiProject

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.