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Should I ship an Arcade Bike game?
Bikes + Arcade
Of 24 developers who shipped an Arcade Bike game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $960, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60. 22 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper, while revenue is down 70% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $60 (exactly $60) |
|---|---|
| Median | $959 (exactly $959) |
| Top 25% | $2.7k (exactly $2,697) |
| Top 5% | $206k (exactly $205,626) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 24 |
| Released games | 77 |
| Announced | 22 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Bikes, Arcade; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Racing, Physics, Sports
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 807 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Bikes with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SportsFair
- + Action-AdventureFair
- + SimulationFair
- + PvPFair
- + Character CustomizationFair
- + MotocrossLong shot
- + DrivingPoor odds
- + CyclingPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + PhysicsPoor odds
- + AdventurePoor odds
- + RacingPoor odds
Comparable games
MX vs. ATV Reflex 2010 · $1.7M 
Lonely Mountains: Downhill 2019 · $1.6M 
Trials Evolution: Gold Edition 2013 · $1.4M 
RIDE 2015 · $1.3M 
HOT WHEELS UNLEASHED™ 2 - Turbocharged 2023 · $1.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | MX vs. ATV Reflex | older | $19.99 | 2,904 88% | 87k | $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) | Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic |
| | Lonely Mountains: Downhill | older | $19.99 | 2,741 89% | 82k | $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) | Megagon Industries |
| | Trials Evolution: Gold Edition | older | $19.99 | 2,253 74% | 68k | $1.4M (exactly $1,351,124) | Redlynx Ltd, Ubisoft Shanghaï |
| | RIDE | older | $19.99 | 2,107 80% | 63k | $1.3M (exactly $1,263,568) | Milestone S.r.l. |
| | HOT WHEELS UNLEASHED™ 2 - Turbocharged | older | $39.99 | 953 77% | 29k | $1.1M (exactly $1,143,314) | Milestone S.r.l. |
 | Monster Energy Supercross - The Official Videogame 6 | older | $49.99 | 512 71% | 15k | $768k (exactly $767,846) | Milestone S.r.l. |
 | Pro Cycling Manager 2024 | older | $39.99 | 340 81% | 10k | $408k (exactly $407,898) | Cyanide Studio |
 | Urban Trial Freestyle | older | $9.99 | 1,345 84% | 40k | $403k (exactly $403,096) | Tate Multimedia |
 | VRacer Hoverbike | $29.99 | 307 89% | 9.2k | $276k (exactly $276,208) | VertexBreakers | |
 | LANESPLIT | $17.99 | 381 77% | 11k | $206k (exactly $205,626) | FunkyMouse | |
 | Moto Rush Reborn | $12.99 | 43 97% | 1.3k | $17k (exactly $16,757) | Baltoro Games | |
 | Escape from Ghosts | $12.99 | 28 71% | 840 | $11k (exactly $10,912) | Alex8778 | |
 | Grind Rush | $15.99 | 9 66% | 270 | $4.3k (exactly $4,317) | AND GEAR | |
 | Moxter | $9.99 | 9 55% | 270 | $2.7k (exactly $2,697) | Aisten Lab, Dalton Bastos | |
 | pedalverse | $4.99 | 14 42% | 420 | $2.1k (exactly $2,096) | FuristicStudio | |
 | Evel Knievel | $9.99 | 5 80% | 150 | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) | Barnstorm Games | |
 | PicoMix by NuSan | $6.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $1.5k (exactly $1,468) | NuSan, Potico Games | |
 | Food Boy | $11.99 | 4 75% | 120 | $1.4k (exactly $1,439) | Dopamin Game Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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