Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Action Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action Roguelike Simulation game?

Simulation + Action Roguelike

Of 165 developers who shipped an Action Roguelike Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 268 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×576 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 268 games are announced against 96 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 268 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Action Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 165
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $5.7k → $2.1k → $2.8k → $1.1k → $861 → $299 (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Action Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 165
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $810 (exactly $810)
Top 25% $9.1k (exactly $9,109)
Top 5% $362k (exactly $362,008)
Developers, 2 yr 165
Released games 409
Announced 268
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Action Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 36,599 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $810, 1 in 4 over $9.1k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 100 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 268 games are announced against 96 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Moonlighter older $19.99 17,286 82% 519k $10M (exactly $10,366,414) Digital Sun
HighFleet older $29.99 7,024 88% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,319,493) Konstantin Koshutin
EVERSPACE™ older $19.99 9,809 77% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,882,457) ROCKFISH Games
Exanima · EA older $14.99 12,684 80% 381k $5.7M (exactly $5,703,995) Bare Mettle Entertainment
Bad North: Jotunn Edition older $14.99 12,344 93% 370k $5.6M (exactly $5,551,097) Plausible Concept, Oskar Stålberg
We Who Are About To Die · EA older $21.99 8,134 88% 244k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,000) Jordy Lakiere
Gamble With Your Friends $7.99 18,883 89% 566k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) TEAM GWYF
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
UNDERDOGS older $29.99 2,788 97% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,508,364) One Hamsa
Atomicrops older $14.99 5,134 93% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) Bird Bath Games
Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite $9.99 6,876 76% 206k $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) Odd Dreams Digital
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
Primordialis · EA $19.99 974 93% 29k $584k (exactly $584,108) Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut
Astro Prospector $4.99 3,223 91% 97k $482k (exactly $482,483) Incrementalist
Fell & Sell $9.99 1,428 84% 43k $428k (exactly $427,972) Art Games Studio S.A.
Dinotica $17.99 746 86% 22k $403k (exactly $402,616) XA Studio
Granvir $14.99 842 90% 25k $379k (exactly $378,647) Airborne Games
Zombie Graveyard Simulator $14.99 805 89% 24k $362k (exactly $362,008) threeW
Million Depth $16.99 673 93% 20k $343k (exactly $343,028) Cyber Space Biotope

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.