Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + 4 Player Local

Only 7 developers shipped a 4 Player Local Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Recess, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×6.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $300 against a market of $1.5k. 20 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 20 announced, ×6.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $33k → $599 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 5% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 34
Announced 20
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, 4 Player Local
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 6,815 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $1.1k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HYPERCHARGE: Unboxed older $24.99 3,798 90% 114k $2.8M (exactly $2,847,361) Digital Cybercherries
DAVIGO: VR vs. PC · EA older $24.99 1,200 84% 36k $900k (exactly $899,640) Davigo Studio
Amazing Frog? 2 · EA older $19.99 726 77% 22k $435k (exactly $435,382) Fayju
Shadowgrounds Survivor older $9.99 583 62% 17k $175k (exactly $174,725) Frozenbyte
ZCREW older $6.99 333 51% 10k $70k (exactly $69,830) Emotion Studio
Late For Work older $14.99 78 88% 2.3k $35k (exactly $35,077) Salmi Games
Survive The Hill older $19.99 55 67% 1.7k $33k (exactly $32,984) Redivided Studios
The Otterman Empire older $15.99 14 71% 420 $6.7k (exactly $6,716) Tri-Heart Interactive
Tango Fiesta older $9.99 19 68% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Spilt Milk Studios Ltd
Mutant Crisis older $11.99 9 66% 270 $3.2k (exactly $3,237) Quark Game Studio
Recess $9.99 4 50% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Lost Echoes Interactive
RAGDOLL UNIVERSE · EA $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) MageC
Slalomancers $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Kwing
MonsterEnd $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) XiaoDongMa
Delivery Mayhem $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Volantibus
Big Bad Soccer $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) www.superstargames.co.uk
Toad Turf · EA $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Gatos Malos LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.