Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + 3D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 3D Platformer Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + 3D Platformer

Of 109 developers who shipped a 3D Platformer Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 153 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 58 developers shipped in the last year and 153 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 153 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + 3D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 109
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $748 → $899 → $836 → $839 → $179 → $505 (still earning) → $119 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + 3D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 109
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,120)
Top 5% $833k (exactly $833,166)
Developers, 2 yr 109
Released games 342
Announced 153
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, 3D Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 17,851 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 71 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 153 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart older $59.99 11,529 90% 346k $21M (exactly $20,748,741) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Sunset Overdrive older $19.99 12,082 90% 362k $7.2M (exactly $7,245,575) Insomniac Games, Blind Squirrel Games
Tomb Raider I-III Remastered Starring Lara Croft older $29.99 6,877 85% 206k $6.2M (exactly $6,187,237) Aspyr, Crystal Dynamics
Saints Row®: The Third™ Remastered older $29.99 3,968 73% 119k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,010) Deep Silver Volition, Sperasoft
Voidling Bound $24.99 3,126 92% 94k $2.3M (exactly $2,343,562) Hatchery Games
I Am Bread older $12.99 4,793 78% 144k $1.9M (exactly $1,867,832) Bossa Studios
Squirrel with a Gun older $19.99 3,112 86% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,866,266) Dee Dee Creations LLC
Tomb Raider: Anniversary older $8.99 6,644 81% 199k $1.8M (exactly $1,791,887) Crystal Dynamics
Tomb Raider: Underworld older $8.99 6,173 76% 185k $1.7M (exactly $1,664,858) Crystal Dynamics
s&box $9.99 5,118 46% 154k $1.5M (exactly $1,533,865) Facepunch Studios
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
Tomb Raider IV-VI Remastered $29.99 1,507 89% 45k $1.4M (exactly $1,355,848) Aspyr, Crystal Dynamics
MOBILE SUIT GUNDAM SEED BATTLE DESTINY REMASTERED $39.99 757 77% 23k $908k (exactly $908,173) Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc.
近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau $9.99 2,780 92% 83k $833k (exactly $833,166) Noto Muteki
Onirism $17.99 1,337 82% 40k $722k (exactly $721,579) Crimson Tales
Haydee 3 $29.99 321 84% 9.6k $289k (exactly $288,804) Haydee Interactive
The Ghost’s Intimate Cure $10.99 437 70% 13k $144k (exactly $144,079) 雪山雞白郎, SnowGBL
Sex Trainer's Diary: Hidden Kink $19.99 184 70% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) 老二打鐵舖, 072 Localize, NOVA CONCEPT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.