Do I ship it?

GamesMechanicsTennis

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tennis game?

Tennis

Of 46 developers who shipped a Tennis game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $50. Revenue is up 1460% on the market; 34 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 1460% on the market, 34 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tennis
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $359 → $955 → $1.6k → $299 → $1.7k → $5.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tennis: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,397)
Top 5% $194k (exactly $193,703)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 148
Announced 34
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1460% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tennis
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tennis
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 3,640 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $720, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Tennis

9 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Tennis + Local Multiplayer Fair $2.3k 18 devs
  2. Simulation + Tennis Fair $1.7k 15 devs
  3. Sports + Tennis Fair $719 41 devs
  4. Action + Tennis Fair $628 23 devs
  5. PvP + Tennis Long shot $899 17 devs
  6. Character Customization + Tennis Poor odds $539 9 devs
  7. Tennis + Local Co-Op Dead $2.3k 10 devs
  8. Tennis + Arcade Dead $267 30 devs
  9. Physics + Tennis Dead $0 17 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
AO Tennis 2 older $49.99 1,236 70% 37k $1.9M (exactly $1,853,629) Big Ant Studios
Eleven Table Tennis older $19.99 3,015 94% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,808,095) For Fun Labs
TopSpin 2K25 older $19.99 2,040 57% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) Hangar 13
TIEBREAK – GRAND SLAM EDITION older $49.99 668 76% 20k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,800) Big Ant Studios
Tennis Elbow 4 $29.99 1,077 96% 32k $969k (exactly $968,977) Mana Games
Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels EX $9.99 1,733 85% 52k $519k (exactly $519,380) Tora Creatives
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
Full Ace Tennis Simulator older $24.99 486 90% 15k $364k (exactly $364,354) Galactic Gaming Guild
Tennis Elbow 2013 older $14.99 673 93% 20k $303k (exactly $302,648) Mana Games
Tennis World Tour older $29.99 325 49% 9.8k $292k (exactly $292,402) Breakpoint
Pure Badminton $19.99 323 81% 9.7k $194k (exactly $193,703) DS SOFT
Tennis Manager 26 $39.99 46 73% 1.4k $55k (exactly $55,186) Rebound
Looney Tunes: Wacky World of Sports $49.99 34 79% 1.0k $51k (exactly $50,990) Bamtang Games
Tennis Manager 25 $19.99 76 68% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Rebound
Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels $8.99 163 92% 4.9k $44k (exactly $43,961) Tora Creatives
10S FOREVER $7.99 94 98% 2.8k $23k (exactly $22,532) owch
Racket Pinball $19.99 37 91% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) NiVision
SPORTAL $7.99 57 94% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Sleepwalking Potatoes

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.