Do I ship it?

Games › Tennis › Tennis + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Tennis game?

Tennis + Arcade

Of 30 developers who shipped an Arcade Tennis game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 12 developers shipped in the last year and 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 18 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tennis + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $955 → $2.9k → $150 → $1.5k → $267 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tennis + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $267 (exactly $267)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,601)
Top 5% $22k (exactly $22,189)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 75
Announced 18
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tennis
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tennis, Arcade; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Sports, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cartoony, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 317 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $22k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tennis with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair18 devs · median $2.3k · 10 announced
  2. + SimulationFair15 devs · median $1.7k · 10 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $719 · 28 announced
  4. + ActionFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  5. + PvPLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  6. + Character CustomizationPoor odds9 devs · median $539 · 12 announced
  7. + Local Co-OpDead10 devs · median $2.3k · 6 announced
  8. + PhysicsDead17 devs · median $0 · 14 announced

All 8 pairs on the Tennis page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

AO Tennis 2 2020 · $1.9M All-In-One Sports VR 2023 · $420k Toasterball 2023 · $97k Super Sports Blast 2021 · $44k Super Tennis Blast 2019 · $40k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
AO Tennis 2 older $49.99 1,236 70% 37k $1.9M (exactly $1,853,629) Big Ant Studios
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
Toasterball older $9.99 324 96% 9.7k $97k (exactly $97,103) Les Crafteurs
Super Sports Blast older $24.99 59 81% 1.8k $44k (exactly $44,232) Unfinished Pixel
Super Tennis Blast older $14.99 88 81% 2.6k $40k (exactly $39,574) Unfinished Pixel
10S FOREVER $7.99 94 98% 2.8k $23k (exactly $22,532) owch
Racket Pinball $19.99 37 91% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) NiVision
Nickelodeon Extreme Tennis: Next! $29.99 11 81% 330 $9.9k (exactly $9,897) Old Skull Games
TORSO TENNIS $4.99 63 100% 1.9k $9.4k (exactly $9,431) Michael Mato
Dino Galaxy Tennis older $9.99 27 88% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Vixa Games
Tennis Fighters $7.99 22 63% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,273) TDO Games
King of Ping Pong: MEGAMIX $6.99 20 90% 600 $4.2k (exactly $4,194) Suspicious Jam
TENNISTRONIC · EA $6.99 14 100% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Gametheus
Sokker $2.99 29 86% 870 $2.6k (exactly $2,601) Sokpop Collective
Casual Sport Series: Tennis $5.99 13 92% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) Revulo Games
Pungo $3.99 14 85% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) White Eyes Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.