Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Tennis

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tennis Sports game?

Sports + Tennis

Of 41 developers who shipped a Tennis Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $60. Revenue is up 765% on the market; 28 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 765% on the market, 28 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Tennis
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $359 → $955 → $2.9k → $539 → $1.5k → $5.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Tennis: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,397)
Top 5% $194k (exactly $193,703)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 124
Announced 28
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 765% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Tennis
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Tennis; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 3,640 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $720, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. Nearly all of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
AO Tennis 2 older $49.99 1,236 70% 37k $1.9M (exactly $1,853,629) Big Ant Studios
Eleven Table Tennis older $19.99 3,015 94% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,808,095) For Fun Labs
TopSpin 2K25 older $19.99 2,040 57% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) Hangar 13
TIEBREAK – GRAND SLAM EDITION older $49.99 668 76% 20k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,800) Big Ant Studios
Tennis Elbow 4 $29.99 1,077 96% 32k $969k (exactly $968,977) Mana Games
Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels EX $9.99 1,733 85% 52k $519k (exactly $519,380) Tora Creatives
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
Full Ace Tennis Simulator older $24.99 486 90% 15k $364k (exactly $364,354) Galactic Gaming Guild
Tennis Elbow 2013 older $14.99 673 93% 20k $303k (exactly $302,648) Mana Games
Tennis World Tour older $29.99 325 49% 9.8k $292k (exactly $292,402) Breakpoint
Pure Badminton $19.99 323 81% 9.7k $194k (exactly $193,703) DS SOFT
Tennis Manager 26 $39.99 46 73% 1.4k $55k (exactly $55,186) Rebound
Looney Tunes: Wacky World of Sports $49.99 34 79% 1.0k $51k (exactly $50,990) Bamtang Games
Tennis Manager 25 $19.99 76 68% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Rebound
Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels $8.99 163 92% 4.9k $44k (exactly $43,961) Tora Creatives
10S FOREVER $7.99 94 98% 2.8k $23k (exactly $22,532) owch
Racket Pinball $19.99 37 91% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) NiVision
SPORTAL $7.99 57 94% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Sleepwalking Potatoes

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.