Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Tennis

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tennis Action game?

Action + Tennis

Of 23 developers who shipped a Tennis Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $50. Revenue is up 5560% on the market; 12 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 5560% on the market, 12 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Tennis
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $30 → $60 → $1.6k → $60 → $2.6k → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Tennis: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $628 (exactly $628)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,431)
Top 5% $23k (exactly $22,532)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 71
Announced 12
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 5560% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Tennis
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action, Tennis; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, Arcade, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Cartoony
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 393 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $630, 1 in 4 over $9.4k, 1 in 20 over $22k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  10. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  11. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds108 devs · median $71k · 261 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
AO Tennis 2 older $49.99 1,236 70% 37k $1.9M (exactly $1,853,629) Big Ant Studios
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
First Person Tennis - The Real Tennis Simulator older $24.99 349 87% 10k $262k (exactly $261,645) Mikori Games
Tennis Elbow Manager 2 older $29.99 202 91% 6.1k $182k (exactly $181,739) Mana Games
Toasterball older $9.99 324 96% 9.7k $97k (exactly $97,103) Les Crafteurs
Tennis Manager 26 $39.99 46 73% 1.4k $55k (exactly $55,186) Rebound
Tennis Manager 2024 older $9.99 94 77% 2.8k $28k (exactly $28,172) Rebound
Trivia Vault: Tennis Trivia older $13.99 65 69% 2.0k $27k (exactly $27,280) Ripknot Systems
10S FOREVER $7.99 94 98% 2.8k $23k (exactly $22,532) owch
Racket Pinball $19.99 37 91% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) NiVision
SPORTAL $7.99 57 94% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Sleepwalking Potatoes
Nickelodeon Extreme Tennis: Next! $29.99 11 81% 330 $9.9k (exactly $9,897) Old Skull Games
TORSO TENNIS $4.99 63 100% 1.9k $9.4k (exactly $9,431) Michael Mato
Tennis Fighters $7.99 22 63% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,273) TDO Games
King of Ping Pong: MEGAMIX $6.99 20 90% 600 $4.2k (exactly $4,194) Suspicious Jam
TENNISTRONIC · EA $6.99 14 100% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Gametheus
Sokker $2.99 29 86% 870 $2.6k (exactly $2,601) Sokpop Collective

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.