Do I ship it?

GamesTennisTennis + Local Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Multiplayer Tennis game?

Tennis + Local Multiplayer

Only 18 developers shipped a Local Multiplayer Tennis game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tennis Elbow 4, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is up 645% on the market; 10 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 645% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tennis + Local Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $2.4k → $2.9k → $299 → $1.7k → $9.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tennis + Local Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,336)
Top 25% $9.9k (exactly $9,897)
Top 5% $969k (exactly $968,977)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 48
Announced 10
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 645% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tennis
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tennis, Local Multiplayer; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, Co-op, Local Co-Op
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,631 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $9.8k, 1 in 20 over $960k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tennis with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SimulationFair15 devs · median $1.7k · 10 announced
  2. + SportsFair41 devs · median $719 · 28 announced
  3. + ActionFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  4. + PvPLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  5. + Character CustomizationPoor odds9 devs · median $539 · 12 announced
  6. + Local Co-OpDead10 devs · median $2.3k · 6 announced
  7. + ArcadeDead30 devs · median $267 · 18 announced
  8. + PhysicsDead17 devs · median $0 · 14 announced

All 8 pairs on the Tennis page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TopSpin 2K25 older $19.99 2,040 57% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) Hangar 13
Tennis Elbow 4 $29.99 1,077 96% 32k $969k (exactly $968,977) Mana Games
Full Ace Tennis Simulator older $24.99 486 90% 15k $364k (exactly $364,354) Galactic Gaming Guild
Tennis World Tour 2 older $39.99 202 49% 6.1k $242k (exactly $242,339) Big Ant Studios
Pure Badminton $19.99 323 81% 9.7k $194k (exactly $193,703) DS SOFT
Tennis Elbow Manager 2 older $29.99 202 91% 6.1k $182k (exactly $181,739) Mana Games
Matchpoint - Tennis Championships older $39.99 117 70% 3.5k $140k (exactly $140,365) Torus Games
Toasterball older $9.99 324 96% 9.7k $97k (exactly $97,103) Les Crafteurs
Looney Tunes: Wacky World of Sports $49.99 34 79% 1.0k $51k (exactly $50,990) Bamtang Games
Super Sports Blast older $24.99 59 81% 1.8k $44k (exactly $44,232) Unfinished Pixel
10S FOREVER $7.99 94 98% 2.8k $23k (exactly $22,532) owch
Nickelodeon Extreme Tennis: Next! $29.99 11 81% 330 $9.9k (exactly $9,897) Old Skull Games
Tennis Fighters $7.99 22 63% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,273) TDO Games
TENNISTRONIC · EA $6.99 14 100% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Gametheus
Sokker $2.99 29 86% 870 $2.6k (exactly $2,601) Sokpop Collective
Casual Sport Series: Tennis $5.99 13 92% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) Revulo Games
Pungo $3.99 14 85% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) White Eyes Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.