Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Survival

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Survival game?

Survival

Of 3,005 developers who shipped a Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5,458 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1333 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 5,458 games are announced against 1,785 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 5,458 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 3,005
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $1.8k → $1.3k → $1.6k → $1.3k → $1.1k → $958 (still earning) → $598 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 3,005
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,840)
Top 5% $837k (exactly $837,415)
Developers, 2 yr 3,005
Released games 9,580
Announced 5,458
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 2,144,937 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 1,516 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 5,458 games are announced against 1,785 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Survival

66 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Survival + Space Poor odds $807 246 devs
  2. Survival + Thriller Poor odds $807 178 devs
  3. Survival + Demons Poor odds $779 141 devs
  4. Survival + Fantasy Poor odds $719 472 devs
  5. Survival + Underground Poor odds $719 41 devs
  6. Survival + Dragons Poor odds $718 16 devs
  7. Survival + Robots Poor odds $629 75 devs
  8. Survival + Magic Poor odds $599 205 devs
  9. Survival + Modern Poor odds $599 41 devs
  10. Survival + Aliens Poor odds $570 115 devs
  11. Survival + Futuristic Poor odds $564 181 devs
  12. Survival + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $479 53 devs
  13. Survival + Heist Dead $21k 5 devs
  14. Survival + Time Travel Dead $3.8k 12 devs
  15. Survival + Superhero Dead $1.3k 6 devs
  16. Survival + Ninja Dead $836 6 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B DayZ 2018 · $582M No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Valheim 2026 · $418M Dead by Daylight 2016 · $411M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Dead by Daylight older $19.99 685,423 78% 21M $411M (exactly $411,048,173) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Scrap Mechanic $28.99 109,429 92% 3.3M $95M (exactly $95,170,401) Axolot Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.