Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Survival game?

Survival + Magic

Of 205 developers who shipped a Magic Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 354 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×286 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 354 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 354 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 205
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $416 → $2.7k → $719 → $836 → $599 → $449 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 205
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,358)
Top 5% $179k (exactly $179,310)
Developers, 2 yr 205
Released games 492
Announced 354
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 85,297 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.3k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 93 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 354 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Mortal Online 2 older $39.99 11,103 59% 333k $13M (exactly $13,320,269) Star Vault AB
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Legion TD 2 - Multiplayer Tower Defense older $24.99 12,607 86% 378k $9.5M (exactly $9,451,468) AutoAttack Games
Witch It older $19.99 14,540 89% 436k $8.7M (exactly $8,719,638) Barrel Roll Games
PixARK older $19.99 11,142 73% 334k $6.7M (exactly $6,681,857) Snail Games USA
Dark and Light · EA older $17.99 10,577 51% 317k $5.7M (exactly $5,708,407) Snail Games USA
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Valley older $14.99 6,276 91% 188k $2.8M (exactly $2,822,317) Blue Isle Studios
YAR: Forgotten Throne $19.99 1,283 89% 38k $769k (exactly $769,415) Honor Games
Lay of the Land $19.99 1,190 79% 36k $714k (exactly $713,643) Southern Cross Interactive
Masters of Albion · EA $24.99 607 64% 18k $455k (exactly $455,068) 22cans
holoVillage: Our Cozy Days $24.99 518 83% 16k $388k (exactly $388,345) Roboqlo
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
DYSPLACED · EA $24.99 296 87% 8.9k $222k (exactly $221,911) 10tons Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.