Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Survival game?

Survival + Thriller

Of 178 developers who shipped a Thriller Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 289 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×357 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 289 games are announced against 102 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 289 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 178
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $1.8k → $1.2k → $1.5k → $1.2k → $449 → $748 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 178
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $807 (exactly $807)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,689)
Top 5% $224k (exactly $224,288)
Developers, 2 yr 178
Released games 464
Announced 289
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Survival Horror, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.49 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.49 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 42,592 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $810, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 90 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 289 games are announced against 102 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Last of Us™ Part I older $59.99 65,259 85% 2.0M $117M (exactly $117,446,622) Naughty Dog LLC, Iron Galaxy Studios
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
Alan Wake older $14.99 45,662 89% 1.4M $21M (exactly $20,534,201) Remedy Entertainment
Dead Space™ 3 older $19.99 12,238 72% 367k $7.3M (exactly $7,339,129) Visceral Games
Seed of the Dead: Sweet Home older $29.99 3,006 83% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,704,498) TeamKRAMA
BURIED STARS older $39.99 2,117 83% 64k $2.5M (exactly $2,539,765) LINE Games Corporation
Paper Dolls: Original / 纸人 older $16.99 4,449 84% 133k $2.3M (exactly $2,267,655) Beijing Litchi Culture Media Co., Ltd.
Alan Wake's American Nightmare older $8.99 8,352 74% 251k $2.3M (exactly $2,252,534) Remedy Entertainment
Moons of Madness older $24.99 2,189 77% 66k $1.6M (exactly $1,641,093) Rock Pocket Games
Paper Dolls 2 纸人贰 older $19.99 2,636 82% 79k $1.6M (exactly $1,580,809) Beijing Litchi Culture Media Co., Ltd.
The Thing: Remastered $29.99 1,203 89% 36k $1.1M (exactly $1,082,339) Nightdive Studios, Computer Artworks
Granny: Escape Together $9.99 1,661 79% 50k $498k (exactly $497,802) CreepyToad
Deathground · EA $14.99 877 61% 26k $394k (exactly $394,387) Jaw Drop Games
Blood Money: Lethal Eden $8.99 1,262 91% 38k $340k (exactly $340,361) 碧火互娱
Final Sentence $9.99 1,095 84% 33k $328k (exactly $328,172) Button Mash
Evil School $7.99 1,058 92% 32k $254k (exactly $253,603) CineGame Interactive
Arctic Awakening $24.99 328 84% 9.8k $246k (exactly $245,902) GoldFire Studios
Titanic Escape Simulator™ $19.99 374 52% 11k $224k (exactly $224,288) magicprostudio, Vintage Digital Revival
Nested Lands · EA $14.99 482 73% 14k $217k (exactly $216,755) 1M Bits Horde

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.