Do I ship it?

Games › Survival › Survival + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Survival game?

Survival + Futuristic

Of 181 developers who shipped a Futuristic Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 386 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $560, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×187 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 386 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 386 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 181
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $1.8k → $1.1k → $449 → $748 → $959 → $629 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 181
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $564 (exactly $564)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,613)
Top 5% $118k (exactly $117,741)
Developers, 2 yr 181
Released games 512
Announced 386
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 376,673 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $560, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 97 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 386 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Marathon 2026 · $54M Call of Duty®: Black Ops II 2012 · $28M Clone Drone in the Danger Zone 2021 · $22M The Alters 2025 · $16M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Call of Duty®: Black Ops II older $39.99 23,307 86% 699k $28M (exactly $27,961,408) Treyarch
Clone Drone in the Danger Zone older $19.99 36,084 96% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,639,575) Doborog Games
The Alters $34.99 15,330 90% 460k $16M (exactly $16,091,901) 11 bit studios
Dead Space™ 2 older $19.99 25,897 94% 777k $16M (exactly $15,530,431) Visceral Games
Crysis Remastered older $29.99 16,822 77% 505k $15M (exactly $15,134,753) Crytek
Dead Space (2008) older $19.99 22,890 92% 687k $14M (exactly $13,727,133) EA Redwood Shores
Crysis 2 - Maximum Edition older $29.99 9,352 86% 281k $8.4M (exactly $8,413,994) Crytek Studios
Dead Space™ 3 older $19.99 12,238 72% 367k $7.3M (exactly $7,339,129) Visceral Games
Forever Skies $29.99 8,138 78% 244k $7.3M (exactly $7,321,759) Far From Home
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
Hail to the Rainbow $14.99 2,533 90% 76k $1.1M (exactly $1,139,090) Носков Сергей
Modulus: Factory Automation $24.99 817 90% 25k $613k (exactly $612,505) Happy Volcano
Heat Death: Survival Train · EA $11.99 709 77% 21k $255k (exactly $255,027) Mass Game Devs
LIFE EFFECT Survival · EA $14.99 488 85% 15k $219k (exactly $219,454) LIFE EFFECT
Space Accident VR $16.99 231 82% 6.9k $118k (exactly $117,741) VR-WRG

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.