Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Survival game?

Survival + Artificial Intelligence

Of 53 developers who shipped an AI Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 120 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×377 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 120 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 120 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 53
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $2.6k → $599 → $839 → $15k → $475 → $1.8k (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 53
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $7.7k (exactly $7,727)
Top 5% $237k (exactly $236,995)
Developers, 2 yr 53
Released games 202
Announced 120
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Simulation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 13,882 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $480, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 120 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Jurassic World Evolution 3 $59.99 11,387 93% 342k $20M (exactly $20,493,184) Frontier Developments
From the Depths older $24.99 11,059 89% 332k $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) Brilliant Skies Ltd.
AI*Shoujo/AI*少女 older $69.99 2,100 75% 63k $4.4M (exactly $4,409,370) ILLUSION
Kill It With Fire older $12.99 4,036 95% 121k $1.6M (exactly $1,572,829) Casey Donnellan Games LLC
The Sapling · EA older $17.99 1,922 89% 58k $1.0M (exactly $1,037,303) Wessel Stoop
Ruinarch older $24.99 1,336 62% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) Maccima Games LLC
Ukrainian Fight Drone Simulator (UFDS) - FPV drone simulator $29.99 800 80% 24k $720k (exactly $719,760) SIMTECH SOLUTIONS
Starmancer · EA older $14.99 891 61% 27k $401k (exactly $400,683) Ominux Games
Thrive · EA older $4.99 1,680 92% 50k $251k (exactly $251,496) Revolutionary Games Studio
Settlements Rising $18.99 416 80% 12k $237k (exactly $236,995) The Catalyst Crew
Titanic Escape Simulator™ $19.99 374 52% 11k $224k (exactly $224,288) magicprostudio, Vintage Digital Revival
Space Accident VR $16.99 231 82% 6.9k $118k (exactly $117,741) VR-WRG
Survivor Girls Sanctuary $9.99 189 64% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,643) Survival Strategy !
Dofamine VR $9.99 173 82% 5.2k $52k (exactly $51,848) VR-WRG
Rainbow Gate $13.99 116 68% 3.5k $49k (exactly $48,685) 7EVIL Studio
Deep Crafter · EA $17.99 76 68% 2.3k $41k (exactly $41,017) Deep Crafter Studio
Flower Fairy Survivor $9.99 120 87% 3.6k $36k (exactly $35,964) Survival Strategy !

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.