Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Survival game?

Survival + Modern

Of 41 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $52k, ×83 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 65 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 65 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $34k → $1.6k → $719 → $898 → $1.3k → $599 → $479 (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $2.0k (exactly $1,973)
Top 5% $52k (exactly $52,165)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 113
Announced 65
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 15,662 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $600, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $52k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. All of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gray Zone Warfare · EA older $39.99 69,146 72% 2.1M $83M (exactly $82,954,456) MADFINGER Games, a.s.
Yet Another Zombie Survivors $14.99 14,123 91% 424k $6.4M (exactly $6,351,113) Awesome Games Studio
Green Hell VR older $19.99 1,143 57% 34k $685k (exactly $685,457) Incuvo
Blood Money: Lethal Eden $8.99 1,262 91% 38k $340k (exactly $340,361) 碧火互娱
Paradise older $19.99 561 90% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) PIL/SLASH
Cataclysm: Dark Days Ahead older $19.99 537 86% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) CleverRaven
AXYOS older $4.99 1,629 52% 49k $244k (exactly $243,861) Axyos Games
Offroad Mechanic Simulator older $19.99 238 71% 7.1k $143k (exactly $142,729) Image Power S.A., GameFormatic S.A.
Red Alliance older $11.99 265 78% 8.0k $95k (exactly $95,320) 2ndUp Studios
After the Collapse older $14.99 201 77% 6.0k $90k (exactly $90,390) Anarkis Gaming
Oops.. Where's My Bikini?! 👙🔥 $14.99 116 77% 3.5k $52k (exactly $52,165) Dirty Adventures 🖤
Chasmal Fear $19.99 55 52% 1.7k $33k (exactly $32,984) MystiveDev
Lost Paws $19.99 18 94% 540 $11k (exactly $10,795) Dungeoneering Studios
Breakfall: Nuclear Winter · EA $17.99 7 28% 210 $3.8k (exactly $3,778) Dominik Geuer
Hapunan $3.99 30 90% 900 $3.6k (exactly $3,591) YIKON GAMES INC
逐末之地:60s Exploring the Endless Land:60s · EA $6.99 14 85% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Dreamy_Chat
Yakiniku Party Survival $2.99 27 92% 810 $2.4k (exactly $2,422) KIMIDORI SOFT
Just Eat The Rich $6.99 10 100% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) Birdman

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.