Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Roguelike Deckbuilder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Deckbuilder?

Roguelike Deckbuilder

Of 539 developers who shipped a Roguelike Deckbuilder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 870 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.7k, ×14 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1469 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 870 games are announced against 352 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 870 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike Deckbuilder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 539
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $54k → $17k → $17k → $12k → $12k → $4.3k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike Deckbuilder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 539
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Median $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $49,455)
Top 5% $698k (exactly $697,971)
Developers, 2 yr 539
Released games 902
Announced 870
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike Deckbuilder
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 273,031 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $6.7k, 1 in 4 over $49k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 6 in 10 of the 211 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 870 games are announced against 352 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Roguelike Deckbuilder

11 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Female Protagonist Fair $7.8k 35 devs
  2. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Mythology Fair $6.9k 22 devs
  3. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Cyberpunk Long shot $179 17 devs
  4. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Medieval Poor odds $14k 44 devs
  5. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Space Poor odds $11k 18 devs
  6. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Magic Poor odds $9.4k 45 devs
  7. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Fantasy Poor odds $8.1k 196 devs
  8. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $6.7k 66 devs
  9. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Horror Poor odds $6.0k 19 devs
  10. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Demons Poor odds $6.0k 14 devs
  11. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.0k 35 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Slay the Spire 2019 · $144M Slay the Spire 2 2026 · EA · $138M Balatro 2024 · $72M Monster Train 2020 · $15M 9 Kings 2025 · EA · $13M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
Chrono Ark older $24.99 12,623 90% 379k $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) Al Fine
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
Griftlands older $19.99 13,440 93% 403k $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) Klei Entertainment
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
ROUNDS older $5.99 35,738 95% 1.1M $6.4M (exactly $6,422,119) Landfall
Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors $9.99 18,587 96% 558k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,524) poncle, Nosebleed Interactive
Super Fantasy Kingdom · EA $19.99 5,630 86% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,376,311) Super Fantasy Games
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
He is Coming · EA $19.99 3,834 84% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,299,250) Chronocle
Emberward $19.99 3,775 96% 113k $2.3M (exactly $2,263,868) Refic Games
DICEOMANCER $14.99 4,749 96% 142k $2.1M (exactly $2,135,625) 超厚皮猪猪 Ultra Piggy Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.