Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelike DeckbuilderRoguelike Deckbuilder + Demons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Demon Roguelike Deckbuilder?

Roguelike Deckbuilder + Demons

Only 14 developers shipped a Demon Roguelike Deckbuilder in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Monster Train 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×13 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×13648 the market median. Revenue is up 2185% on the market; 24 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 2185% on the market, 24 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike Deckbuilder + Demons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $102k → $1.3k → $11k → $599 → $9.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike Deckbuilder + Demons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $6.0k (exactly $5,970)
Top 25% $68k (exactly $68,377)
Top 5% $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 26
Announced 24
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2185% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs
Demons
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelike Deckbuilder; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Roguelike, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 9,467 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $6.0k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $6.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike Deckbuilder with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PhysicsStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair43 devs · median $12k · 47 announced
  3. + DiceFair36 devs · median $9.6k · 53 announced
  4. + Tactical RPGFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  6. + ExplorationFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $7.8k · 50 announced
  8. + MythologyFair22 devs · median $6.9k · 25 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  10. + PuzzleFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  11. + CyberpunkLong shot17 devs · median $179 · 20 announced
  12. + PvPPoor odds17 devs · median $56k · 42 announced

All 60 pairs on the Roguelike Deckbuilder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Book of Demons older $24.99 8,010 91% 240k $6.0M (exactly $6,005,097) Thing Trunk
Last Evil older $9.99 3,559 94% 107k $1.1M (exactly $1,066,632) Flametorch
Heretic's Fork older $9.99 3,097 85% 93k $928k (exactly $928,171) 9FingerGames
Pyrene older $14.99 676 92% 20k $304k (exactly $303,997) Two Tiny Dice
Nadir: A Grimdark Deckbuilder older $19.99 244 61% 7.3k $146k (exactly $146,327) Black Eye Games
Runeborn $13.99 284 80% 8.5k $119k (exactly $119,195) iDream Interactive
DIMENSION REIGN - ROGUELIKE DECKBUILDER · EA older $17.99 207 67% 6.2k $112k (exactly $111,718) ScopeNext Inc
Power Chord older $19.99 170 71% 5.1k $102k (exactly $101,949) Big Blue Bubble
Malys $14.99 172 79% 5.2k $77k (exactly $77,348) Summerfall Studios
Karigurashi Ren'ai: Living on Borrowed Love $29.99 76 92% 2.3k $68k (exactly $68,377) ASa Project
Learn Japanese: Yuke and the Book of Yokai $13.99 27 85% 810 $11k (exactly $11,332) lpares12
Escape the Dynasty · EA $9.99 33 75% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) CoolStar Games
Hell Deck $1.00 199 88% 6.0k $6.0k (exactly $5,970) OFFMOON Inc.
Dice with the Devil $4.99 9 100% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Krause Games
Daydam Knight $1.99 13 69% 390 $776 (exactly $776) Parham
Deck of Destiny: Battleforge $2.99 7 71% 210 $628 (exactly $628) Furkan Selcuk

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.