Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelike DeckbuilderRoguelike Deckbuilder + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Roguelike Deckbuilder?

Roguelike Deckbuilder + Sci-fi

Of 35 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Roguelike Deckbuilder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×6.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $70k, ×149 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 57 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 57 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike Deckbuilder + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $171k → $95k → $2.5k → $6.3k → $7.8k → $33k → $1.9k (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike Deckbuilder + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,142)
Top 5% $71k (exactly $70,848)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 77
Announced 57
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 240% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelike Deckbuilder; all of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Deckbuilding, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 899 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $70k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike Deckbuilder with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PhysicsStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair43 devs · median $12k · 47 announced
  3. + DiceFair36 devs · median $9.6k · 53 announced
  4. + Tactical RPGFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  6. + ExplorationFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $7.8k · 50 announced
  8. + MythologyFair22 devs · median $6.9k · 25 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  10. + PuzzleFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  11. + CyberpunkLong shot17 devs · median $179 · 20 announced
  12. + PvPPoor odds17 devs · median $56k · 42 announced

All 60 pairs on the Roguelike Deckbuilder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Griftlands older $19.99 13,440 93% 403k $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) Klei Entertainment
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Deep Sky Derelicts older $19.99 1,985 73% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,404) Snowhound Games
Beneath Oresa older $24.99 1,122 78% 34k $841k (exactly $841,163) Broken Spear Inc.
Tower Tactics: Liberation older $19.99 1,224 88% 37k $734k (exactly $734,033) asraworks
Mech Armada older $19.99 653 81% 20k $392k (exactly $391,604) Lioncode Games
Anomaly Collapse older $19.99 567 85% 17k $340k (exactly $340,030) RocketPunch Games
Nitro Kid older $19.99 410 89% 12k $246k (exactly $245,877) Wildboy Studios
Zet Zillions older $9.99 722 87% 22k $216k (exactly $216,383) OTA IMON Studios
For The Warp older $14.99 434 72% 13k $195k (exactly $195,170) Massive Galaxy Studios
Into The Grid · EA $14.99 195 83% 5.9k $88k (exactly $87,692) Flatline Studios
Stellar Orphans $16.99 139 71% 4.2k $71k (exactly $70,848) Artifex Parvus
Hyperspace Deck Command $19.99 91 95% 2.7k $55k (exactly $54,573) Sleeper Games
Takara Cards $14.99 112 83% 3.4k $50k (exactly $50,366) Post Mortem Pixels
Guardians of Dao · EA $19.99 63 74% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) George Financial Holding Ltd.
Command Deck · EA $14.99 74 98% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) k-critical
Flaregate Network $14.99 58 77% 1.7k $26k (exactly $26,083) Keycard Studio, LLC
NET.CRAWL $9.99 46 95% 1.4k $14k (exactly $13,786) Everyone is Solid
Card Coder $14.99 27 74% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Prof. Scherer
outpost4 $3.99 94 72% 2.8k $11k (exactly $11,252) BananaDogGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.