Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelike DeckbuilderRoguelike Deckbuilder + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Roguelike Deckbuilder?

Roguelike Deckbuilder + Female Protagonist

Of 35 developers who shipped a Female-Led Roguelike Deckbuilder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.8k, ×16 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $2.3k. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 50 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 50 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike Deckbuilder + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $49k → $206k → $46k → $82k → $8.5k → $98k → $40k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike Deckbuilder + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Median $7.8k (exactly $7,796)
Top 25% $94k (exactly $93,987)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 71
Announced 50
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike Deckbuilder; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Roguelite, Strategy
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 29,390 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.3k, median $7.8k, 1 in 4 over $93k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.3k. 5 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike Deckbuilder with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PhysicsStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair43 devs · median $12k · 47 announced
  3. + DiceFair36 devs · median $9.6k · 53 announced
  4. + Tactical RPGFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  6. + ExplorationFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  7. + MythologyFair22 devs · median $6.9k · 25 announced
  8. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  9. + PuzzleFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  10. + CyberpunkLong shot17 devs · median $179 · 20 announced
  11. + PvPPoor odds17 devs · median $56k · 42 announced
  12. + Multiple EndingsPoor odds14 devs · median $40k · 25 announced

All 60 pairs on the Roguelike Deckbuilder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Chrono Ark older $24.99 12,623 90% 379k $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) Al Fine
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
Hand of Fate 2 older $29.99 5,273 84% 158k $4.7M (exactly $4,744,118) Defiant Development
Backpack Hero older $19.99 7,423 85% 223k $4.5M (exactly $4,451,573) Jaspel
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Alina of the Arena older $14.99 3,577 91% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,608,577) PINIX
Take Me To The Dungeon!! older $10.99 3,895 93% 117k $1.3M (exactly $1,284,182) Hanabi Fuusen
Last Evil older $9.99 3,559 94% 107k $1.1M (exactly $1,066,632) Flametorch
Beneath Oresa older $24.99 1,122 78% 34k $841k (exactly $841,163) Broken Spear Inc.
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
Half-Demon Shinobi $10.99 1,242 89% 37k $409k (exactly $409,487) 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機
Witch's Apocalyptic Journey $8.99 1,282 84% 38k $346k (exactly $345,755) MeowAlive
Wander Stars $24.99 148 92% 4.4k $111k (exactly $110,956) Paper Castle Games
Dicealot $14.99 218 78% 6.5k $98k (exactly $98,035) goodviewgames
Hungry Horrors · EA $14.99 209 98% 6.3k $94k (exactly $93,987) Clumsy Bear Studio
Witch and Council : The Card $14.99 182 48% 5.5k $82k (exactly $81,845) G1 Playground

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.