Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Economy game?

Economy + Conspiracy

Only 8 developers shipped a Conspiracy Economy game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Merchants of Rosewall, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×17 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $540 against a market of $630. 34 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 34 announced, ×17 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Economy + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $9.9k (exactly $9,890)
Top 5% $11k (exactly $11,394)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 25
Announced 34
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 3,110 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $540, 1 in 4 over $9.8k, 1 in 20 over $11k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×17 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shadows of Forbidden Gods older $19.99 1,046 91% 31k $627k (exactly $627,286) Bobby Two Hands
Rise Of The White Sun - 白日升 older $24.99 721 86% 22k $541k (exactly $540,534) Maestro Cinetik
Sigma Theory: Global Cold War older $17.99 892 77% 27k $481k (exactly $481,412) Mi-Clos Studio, Goblinz Studio, FibreTi… (Mi-Clos Studio, Goblinz Studio, FibreTigre)
Secret Government older $19.99 249 52% 7.5k $149k (exactly $149,325) GameTrek
The Shadow Government Simulator older $9.99 100 75% 3.0k $30k (exactly $29,970) Chupacabra Game Studios
Merchants of Rosewall $19.99 19 63% 570 $11k (exactly $11,394) Big Blue Sky Games
Statecraft: Corrupted Democracy $9.99 33 90% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Engincan Çiçek, Bad Engine Studio
Hedge Fund Tycoon older $5.99 24 45% 720 $4.3k (exactly $4,313) Stikcy
Lhama Clicker $4.99 13 69% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Clicker
Just Power: The Papal States older $4.99 13 38% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Stikcy Games
The Tavern Tales: Medieval Simulator · EA $2.99 6 100% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Flash Ray Games
Balkan Bloodbath $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Michael Richard Lannon
Neo-Exodus: Last Bastion $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) GODev Games
Letters Of Art $0.99 2 50% 60 $59 (exactly $59) DreamlessHero
Meow World Order $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Spiritual Opium

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.