Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Tactical game?

Tactical + Conspiracy

Only 10 developers shipped a Conspiracy Tactical game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Chains of Freedom, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×13 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $450 against a market of $630. 38 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 38 announced, ×13 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Tactical + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 5% $390k (exactly $389,844)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 37
Announced 38
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 81% positive over 845 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $450, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×13 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SCP: 5K · EA older $19.99 12,334 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,700) Affray Interactive
Sigma Theory: Global Cold War older $17.99 892 77% 27k $481k (exactly $481,412) Mi-Clos Studio, Goblinz Studio, FibreTi… (Mi-Clos Studio, Goblinz Studio, FibreTigre)
Chains of Freedom $24.99 520 80% 16k $390k (exactly $389,844) Nordcurrent
Prime Monster $19.99 308 83% 9.2k $185k (exactly $184,708) Cavalier Game Studios
Undead Inc. older $19.99 158 27% 4.7k $95k (exactly $94,753) Rightsized Games
Budget Cuts Ultimate older $19.99 110 88% 3.3k $66k (exactly $65,967) Neat Corporation
Cyber Ops older $14.99 108 42% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Octeto Studios
The Shadow Government Simulator older $9.99 100 75% 3.0k $30k (exactly $29,970) Chupacabra Game Studios
UNDETECTED older $14.99 63 71% 1.9k $28k (exactly $28,331) Antonio Freyre
Just Read The Instructions · EA older $9.99 37 48% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Knackelibang Productions
Makoku - The Seductive Twilight Squadron $19.99 2 0% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) INTERHEART, ぷちDEVIL
Tanks of Freedom II $5.99 6 100% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) P1X
Going Dark $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Sergiusz Stein
Junkyard Universe $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Sarah Dressel
Balkan Bloodbath $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Michael Richard Lannon
Lucky Pikinini - Advanced Killer Cyborg $1.99 2 50% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Lucky Pikinini
Ambasu · EA $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Ekofi Gaming
Project CyberSky $11.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Xcogames LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.