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Should I ship a Conspiracy Dating Sim?
Dating Sim + Conspiracy
Only 8 developers shipped a Conspiracy Dating Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SHUTEN ORDER, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×11 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.
Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.6k against a market of $480. 44 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,197) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.6k (exactly $1,559) |
| Top 25% | $110k (exactly $110,176) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 8 |
| Released games | 29 |
| Announced | 44 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Dating Sim
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
- Conspiracy
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Dating Sim
- Price point
- $6.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 4,337 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×11 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WarStrong odds
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Souls-likeStrong odds
- + AliensStrong odds
- + PlatformerStrong odds
- + HistoricalFair
- + FPSFair
- + Post-apocalypticFair
- + Quick-Time EventsFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + Action-AdventureFair
- + TacticalFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | SHUTEN ORDER | $49.99 | 712 80% | 21k | $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) | Neilo Inc. | |
| | Fetish Locator Week One | older | $9.99 | 2,418 84% | 73k | $725k (exactly $724,675) | ViNovella Games |
| | Shale Hill Secrets | $14.99 | 245 80% | 7.4k | $110k (exactly $110,176) | Love-Joint | |
| | Booth: A Dystopian Adventure | older | $9.99 | 354 88% | 11k | $106k (exactly $106,094) | Guanpeng Chen |
| | Defending Lydia Collier | · EA older | $19.99 | 130 88% | 3.9k | $78k (exactly $77,961) | White Phantom Games |
| | Hero Roy's Wedding | older | $6.99 | 230 74% | 6.9k | $48k (exactly $48,231) | SwordRP5 |
| | Gynocracy | · EA older | $9.99 | 141 75% | 4.2k | $42k (exactly $42,258) | Brecleas Games |
| | Paradise: Musubi | $14.99 | 73 98% | 2.2k | $33k (exactly $32,828) | PIL/SLASH | |
| | 执谕者:坠月之兆(Archenemy: Lunafall) | older | $7.99 | 30 76% | 900 | $7.2k (exactly $7,191) | OPAL Studio |
| | The Boston Breeder | $12.99 | 4 25% | 120 | $1.6k (exactly $1,559) | LostWorks | |
| | Legacy of Ancestors | · EA | $6.99 | 6 33% | 180 | $1.3k (exactly $1,258) | 命运测试 |
| | 心所向往的北极星 | $3.99 | 10 80% | 300 | $1.2k (exactly $1,197) | 游星Yusei网络 | |
| | Monster Ops 6 | $4.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $150 (exactly $150) | Y Press Games | |
| | The Adventure of a Tramp | $0.99 | 5 60% | 150 | $148 (exactly $148) | Anonymous Almighty | |
| | Monster Ops 14 | $4.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Y Press Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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