Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Conspiracy

Only 8 developers shipped a Conspiracy Dating Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SHUTEN ORDER, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×11 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.6k against a market of $480. 44 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 44 announced, ×11 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $1.2k → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Top 25% $110k (exactly $110,176)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 29
Announced 44
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Dating Sim
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 4,337 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×11 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SHUTEN ORDER $49.99 712 80% 21k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) Neilo Inc.
Fetish Locator Week One older $9.99 2,418 84% 73k $725k (exactly $724,675) ViNovella Games
Shale Hill Secrets $14.99 245 80% 7.4k $110k (exactly $110,176) Love-Joint
Booth: A Dystopian Adventure older $9.99 354 88% 11k $106k (exactly $106,094) Guanpeng Chen
Defending Lydia Collier · EA older $19.99 130 88% 3.9k $78k (exactly $77,961) White Phantom Games
Hero Roy's Wedding older $6.99 230 74% 6.9k $48k (exactly $48,231) SwordRP5
Gynocracy · EA older $9.99 141 75% 4.2k $42k (exactly $42,258) Brecleas Games
Paradise: Musubi $14.99 73 98% 2.2k $33k (exactly $32,828) PIL/SLASH
执谕者:坠月之兆(Archenemy: Lunafall) older $7.99 30 76% 900 $7.2k (exactly $7,191) OPAL Studio
The Boston Breeder $12.99 4 25% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) LostWorks
Legacy of Ancestors · EA $6.99 6 33% 180 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) 命运测试
心所向往的北极星 $3.99 10 80% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) 游星Yusei网络
Monster Ops 6 $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Y Press Games
The Adventure of a Tramp $0.99 5 60% 150 $148 (exactly $148) Anonymous Almighty
Monster Ops 14 $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Y Press Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.