Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Strategy › Turn-Based Strategy + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Conspiracy

Only 11 developers shipped a Conspiracy Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy-, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×7.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.2k against a market of $630. 29 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 1420% on the market, 29 announced, ×7.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $541k → $1.2k → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $107k (exactly $107,024)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $12,405,332)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 41
Announced 29
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1420% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$10.00 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 7,731 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $12M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- 2025 · $12M Solium Infernum 2024 · $1.9M Shadows of Forbidden Gods 2023 · $627k Rise Of The White Sun - 白日升 2023 · $541k Sigma Theory: Global Cold War 2019 · $481k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- $59.99 6,893 88% 207k $12M (exactly $12,405,332) Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc.
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
Shadows of Forbidden Gods older $19.99 1,046 91% 31k $627k (exactly $627,286) Bobby Two Hands
Rise Of The White Sun - 白日升 older $24.99 721 86% 22k $541k (exactly $540,534) Maestro Cinetik
Sigma Theory: Global Cold War older $17.99 892 77% 27k $481k (exactly $481,412) Mi-Clos Studio, Goblinz Studio, FibreTi… (Mi-Clos Studio, Goblinz Studio, FibreTigre)
Chains of Freedom $24.99 520 80% 16k $390k (exactly $389,844) Nordcurrent
Secret Government older $19.99 249 52% 7.5k $149k (exactly $149,325) GameTrek
I Am Your President older $14.99 263 66% 7.9k $118k (exactly $118,271) President
Black Gold - Shining Town $13.99 255 80% 7.7k $107k (exactly $107,024) Morexingame
The Shadow Government Simulator older $9.99 100 75% 3.0k $30k (exactly $29,970) Chupacabra Game Studios
Statecraft: Corrupted Democracy $9.99 33 90% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Engincan Çiçek, Bad Engine Studio
Senatus $4.99 16 81% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Slashware Interactive, Megalevel
Makoku - The Seductive Twilight Squadron $19.99 2 0% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) INTERHEART, ぷちDEVIL
Voyna $12.99 3 100% 90 $1.2k (exactly $1,169) HellYeah!
Tanks of Freedom II $5.99 6 100% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) P1X
Bereaved: Soldiers of Fate · EA $10.00 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Lost Gear Productions
Specter: The Battle of the Mind $0.99 2 50% 60 $59 (exactly $59) AlguemBonitinho

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.