Do I ship it?

GamesShoot 'Em UpShoot 'Em Up + Conspiracy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Conspiracy Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Conspiracy

Only 5 developers shipped a Conspiracy Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Chimera CUSTOM XG, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×15 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $840 against a market of $480. 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 15 announced, ×15 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Conspiracy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Conspiracy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $836 (exactly $836)
Top 25% $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Top 5% $7.8k (exactly $7,796)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 28
Announced 15
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 75% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Conspiracy
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 5,018 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $840, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $7.7k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 15 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×15 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squirrel with a Gun older $19.99 3,112 86% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,866,266) Dee Dee Creations LLC
Alex Jones: NWO Wars older $17.76 1,745 92% 52k $930k (exactly $929,736) NWO Wars Team
Chimera CUSTOM XG · EA $19.99 13 100% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Volok Games
Hunkenstein older $7.99 22 72% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,273) Oubliette
Distortion VR older $14.99 10 20% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) OutSource Studios
Tybot Invasion: The Typing Runner older $4.99 27 100% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Sensen Games
Rick Henderson older $4.99 24 95% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) Fat Pug Studio
Virus at Home older $2.99 25 92% 750 $2.2k (exactly $2,242) Bogdan Padjen
Hardwork Simulator older $1.99 36 94% 1.1k $2.1k (exactly $2,149) Mandinga
Xeno Rangers $11.99 4 100% 120 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) 9000 Legends
Chicken Strike®: Cluck Ops™ $1.99 14 42% 420 $836 (exactly $836) Bamboléo Games
Breaking Point: Operation Exodus $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Aurora Abyss
Operation: Black Genesis - The Immortal Trials $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) IL Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.