Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Dragons

Only 7 developers shipped a Dragon Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: strong odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $53k, ×85 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $3.5k. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 7 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×1.2 per shipper.

Deciding numbers: median 84.5 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 7 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Turn-Based + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Median $53k (exactly $53,082)
Top 25% $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $11,768,818)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 33
Announced 7
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 500% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 28,121 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.6k, median $53k, 1 in 4 over $3.8M, 1 in 20 over $11M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.6k. 7 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  3. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  4. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  5. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  7. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  8. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  9. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  10. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  11. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced
  12. + MilitaryPoor odds20 devs · median $187k · 15 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter Stories 2: Wings of Ruin older $39.99 11,845 82% 355k $14M (exactly $14,210,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection $69.99 5,605 77% 168k $12M (exactly $11,768,818) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined $59.99 2,138 88% 64k $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759) Square Enix, HEXADRIVE Inc.
Divinity: Dragon Commander older $39.99 1,976 73% 59k $2.4M (exactly $2,370,607) Larian Studios
DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS: The Dark Prince older $39.99 1,158 71% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,253) Square Enix
Dragon Star Varnir older $39.99 453 78% 14k $543k (exactly $543,464) Idea Factory, Compile Heart
LiEat older $2.99 4,036 96% 121k $362k (exactly $362,029) △○□× (Miwashiba)
Legends of Amberland: The Forgotten Crown older $19.99 284 94% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) Silver Lemur Games
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Sorcerer King: Rivals older $19.99 255 65% 7.7k $153k (exactly $152,924) Stardock Entertainment
Umbra: The Last Summoner $29.99 59 72% 1.8k $53k (exactly $53,082) EpiRPG
Pawful Dice $14.99 8 100% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Anomalie Studio
Dragonwake $7.99 8 62% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) Mr Crops
You Die Today $7.99 7 71% 210 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) Tabletale Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.